JTH

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Wrapping up a wonderfully horrible month, for the S&P 500, this was the 8th worst January over the past 66 years, here’s the bottom 10

1/2/2009 -8.57%
1/2/1970 -7.65%
1/4/1960 -7.15%
1/2/1990 -6.88%
1/3/1978 -6.15%
1/2/2008 -6.12%
1/3/2000 -5.09%
1/4/2016 -5.07%
1/3/1977 -5.05%
1/2/1981 -4.57%

Long-term Data:
For the Monthly, Weekly, and Daily timeframes, usually the charts ...

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Trading day of the week: Previously, I've only been posting 5 trading days of data to keep the percentile data tables visible. Problem is, this doesn't leave much room for the user to forecast ahead, so I've increased from 5 to 10 trading days, and replaced the percentile data tables with their actually ranking.

The indexes and categories are ranked against themselves (not against each other) As an example, the day with the highest winning ratio will be marked #1, this means ...

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After 3 straight weeks down, it was good to put a stop to the downslide (although the volatility still does exist).
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SPX’s week 4 ranks as the 3rd best week within the 13-week 1st quarter period (HOT)
3rd best winning ratio
3rd best positive average gains
3rd best average gains
8th best negative average gains


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W4500’s week 4 ranks as the 10th best week within the 13-week 1st quarter period (COLD) ...

Another rough week…
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Weekly:

SPX’s week 3 ranks as the 12th best week within the 13-week 1st quarter period (COLD)

13th best winning ratio (worst of the quarter)
9th best positive average gains
13th best average gains (worst of the quarter)
3rd best negative average gains

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W4500’s week 3 ranks as the 4th best week within the 13-week 1st quarter period (HOT)

4th best winning ratio ...

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When it's bad, it's bad...

This was the S&P 500’s single worst Week 1 performance over the previous 41 yearly starts, and the 24th worst over the past 2,139 weeks, putting it in the bottom 2%.
For the Wilshire 4500, this was the single worst Week 1 performance over the previous 28 yearly starts, and the 21st worst over the past 1,461 weeks, putting it in the bottom 2%. For AGG, it was the 2nd best Week 1 performance over the previous 12 yearly starts, and the 68th best ...