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JTH

  1. Trading the Stats: Historical Performance of March

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    Good weekend

    For the S&P 500, the month of February closed up 5.49% this is above the -.21% average returns, is the 2nd best February over the past 21 years, the 5th best over the past 66 years

    For the shorter 20-year trend, we'll compare the month of March against the other 11 months of the year


    • We show a 70% winning ratio, which is above average, ranking 4th
    • We show 1.78% average returns, which is above average, ranking 3rd
    ...

    Updated 02-28-2015 at 07:47 PM by JTH

    Categories
    Stats
  2. Charting: Getting Testy

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    Good evening

    Trading day 19, the last day of February, and the stats aren't great (but not horrible)


    • SPX, 50% winning ratio with -.20% average returns
    • R2K, 40% winning ratio with -.28% average returns
    • AGG, 64% winning ratio with .08% average returns

    Transfer 7/16 for 7/19/04-2015-02-27-0-png

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    AGG, 30-min


    • Traveling up, price was rejected at 50% of the AB wave at C (typical)
    • The blue box is an area with
    ...
    Categories
    Chart Patterns
  3. PnF: Bonds Breakout

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    For the PnF Market Board, both bonds and equities are on a buy.

    STAY AWAY-2015-02-26-1-png

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    Today, AGG triggers a Double Top Breakout
    We have a 112.81 or 1.34% price objective, with a reversal getting triggered at 110.53 or -.71%
    STAY AWAY-2015-02-26-2-png
    STAY AWAY-2015-02-26-3-png

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    Today the transports trigger an Ascending Triple Top Breakout (two back-to-back Double Top Breakouts) and are the only remaining Index with
    ...
    Categories
    Point and Figure , Bonds
  4. Charting: Complacency

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    Good evening

    As we head into the end of the month, much of the price action remains the same, fear & volatility has subsided, and from my perception has been replaced with complacency.

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    AGG, 30-min


    • Confirmation of the short-term price reversal was displayed with a spike in volume at wave 8
    • The February descending parallel price channel has been broken, we now have a higher low at wave 8 and a higher high at wave 9
    ...

    Updated 02-24-2015 at 09:42 PM by JTH

    Categories
    Chart Patterns
  5. Trading the Stats: Week 8

    Good evening

    The S&P 500's third week of February (week 7 of 52) closed up .63% this is above the -.27% average week 7 returns, is the 9th best week over the past 21 years, and the 22nd best over the past 66 years.

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    Contrasting week 8 against an up/down week 7 from 1950-2014


    • We show the last 65 week 8s have an average 51% winning ratio and -.05% average returns
    • For the 32 years when week 7 closed up, week 8 shows a 47% winning
    ...

    Updated 02-23-2015 at 02:02 AM by JTH

    Categories
    Uncategorized
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