JTH

A lot of my TSP friends have been getting Bearish on me. I don’t hold any malice against them; in fact, I love the swatting of Bullish & Bearish banter among us. Most of them aren’t invested so they have a keen interest in seeing this market take a dump. I am invested, so my interest lies in taking profits. Most of them are killing me on the tracker, so if you’re following me over them then you might want to have your head examined.

For the most part, I’ve been Bullish in the short-term because I don’t really have a dog in this fight due to my ROTH IRA. This allows me to play both sides of the field and while we know the March 666 rise continues to defy the odds, I will remain Bullish until the trends are broken. It isn’t easy to stay bullish under these circumstances, and we’ve seen how easily this media circus of a market can turn on a dime, but nevertheless I’ll follow the trend until broken.


For June, we started off the week trading in a higher range, but the end of the week sort of fizzed out. I think the next few days are going to show us where this market is headed, but the truth is, it doesn’t matter what any of us think, it matters what the market does and how well we can capitalize on its moves. As for myself, I’m going on vacation, so I’ve got some IFT thinking to do. I won’t have my usual 24/7 internet access so I may just do a broad-based IFT to finish out the month of June.


I’m hoping tomorrow’s high & low will give us a clue, but the truth is I’m expecting either a flat inside day, or a large down day. Either ways, I have to acknowledge my I-Fund allocation took a beating last week. The 15-Day EFA trend has been broken and its 30/45-Day trends are testing a break. Surprisingly enough, $SPX & $EMW are holding up well.


While I have to admit we are WAY overdue for a pullback, I also have to admit last week we traded in a higher range. Therefore in the short-term, I am sitting on the fence. As always, for the medium and long term, I’m a huge End of the world as we know it MAD-MAX Bear. However, if we start off the morning Bullish, then you can expect me to gloat and tease the Bears with my usual foolishness.


Friday we closed with 5 closes above the daily 200 MA and ended with a higher high & higher low.





15-Day Price Performance Charts. As you can see, EFA has taken a beating and broken below the trend.





30-Day Price Performance Charts.





45-Day Price Performance Charts.