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  1. Bulls Continue to Press their Advantage

    Unlike yesterday, the DOW managed to close above 13,000 (first time since May of 2008). But it was a mixed close as rising prices are not lifting all boats. The Wilshire 4500 was down (S Fund), while the major averages posted modest to moderate gains. The I fund was the winner on the day as the dollar was down about 0.5%.

    Transfer 5/25 for 5/26/04-seven-sentinels-signal-png

    So the Seven Sentinels remain in an intermediate term sell condition, but given the resilience of this market I would ...
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  2. DOW 13,000 Rejected Again

    The market opened trade significantly lower this morning, but shortly after 11 EST the losses were retraced. It was largely sideways action from there with the DOW hitting an intraday high just North of 13,027, but once again it failed to close above the 13,000 level, settling at 12,981.51 at the closing bell.

    2006 tsp becomes unlimited?-seven-sentinels-signal-png

    The Seven Sentinels remain in a sell condition. And while momentum continues to point lower, the market is showing incredible resilience. ...
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  3. Falling Back

    Both the Top 50 and the Total Tracker are showing cash levels rising. Here's the charts for the new week:

    Today-top-50-fund-allocation-jpg
    Today-2012-top-50-trend-jpg

    The Top 50 dropped their total stock allocation by 7% this week to a total allocation of 85.98%.

    Today-total-tracker-fund-allocation-jpg
    Today-2012-total-tracker-trend-jpg

    The Total Tracker shows that we (the herd) are collectively reducing stock exposure. Total exposure this ...
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  4. Downside Remains Limited

    Downside action just can't get any traction. Today, the market managed to eke out some modest gains overall, but volume is very light and that's become a trend all by itself. Volume on the NYSE was barely 640 million shares and that ain't much.

    I believe liquidity has been largely moving this market and it remains a formidable barrier to the bear's attempts to take this market down. Until that liquidity drops off, price will probably continue to rise. And it's anyone's guess when ...
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  5. Topping Action?

    True to current form, the market's upside tenacity put the hurt on the bears once again as the market shook off early weakness quickly and rallied into the close for some moderate gains. Even as yesterday's Seven Sentinels sell signal is foretelling intermediate term weakness, sentiment continues to be generally supportive of higher prices. But nothing is a given in the stock market. The sell signal issued yesterday should be taken as a warning, even if it turns out to be an early one.
    ...
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S&P500 (C Fund) (delayed)

(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
DWCPF (S Fund) (delayed)

(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
EFA (I Fund) (delayed)

(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
BND (F Fund) (delayed)

(Stockcharts.com Real-time)

Yahoo Finance Realtime TSP Fund Tracking Index Quotes