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  1. Another Look Over the Precipice?

    It's seemed like it took forever, but the major averages closed in the red across the board today.

    Prior to the market open Moody's announced it was reviewing Spain for a negative outlook. Portugal's 3-month bill auction didn't go as well as hoped, and Japan's Tankan survey revealed large manufacturers' confidence was near a two year low. I suppose that set the tone for today's action.

    In addition, the yield on the 10-year note rose to almost 3.56% today, in spite ...
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  2. More of the Same

    Two late sell-offs in two days, but not much real damage done.

    The trading day started out with a better-than-expected November retail sales number, but inflation crept into the picture as a bigger-than-expected rise in producer prices was also seen.

    Perhaps the biggest event of the day was the FOMC policy statement, which was in-line with expectations. But after the announcement stocks sold off, treasuries sold off, and the dollar rallied. But as I said earlier, no ...
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  3. Pause Before FOMC Rate Decision

    What started out as a choppy day of trading for most of the session, ended with a modest sell-off towards the close. The S&P 500 finished flat for the day while the Wilshire 4500 dropped a relatively modest 0.38%. The I fund was helped by a weak dollar and tacked on a little over 1%.

    That end-of-day sell-off may have been due to some traders going flat ahead of the FOMC rate hike decision tomorrow afternoon. The rate is almost certain to stay at its current level, but the accompanying ...
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  4. Weekly Sentiment Update

    Our sentiment survey for this coming week inched just a bit more bullish than last and is on a hold (buy) status. Seems most traders and investors have got the Fed memo now that POMO will buoy that markets. And if that's not enough we'll launch QE3. And besides, Santa's coming and a big tax break is in the works. What can go wrong?

    I have to admit, there has been several occasions these past few months where the charts didn't look too good and were ready to roll over into a decline, ...
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  5. Defying Gravity

    Somehow after watching this week's action unfold I can't say I'm surprised that the S&P 500 closed on its high of the day. I started expecting that outcome several hours before the trading day ended. I suppose the old adage "The market can stay irrational longer than we can stay solvent" applies for the time being.

    Here's the charts:

    308,000 new jobs!-$namo-jpg

    Not surprisingly, both NAMO and NYMO turned positive today and are flashing buys.

    ...
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S&P 500 (C fund)
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Dow Completion (S fund)
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EFA (I fund)
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Bonds (F fund)
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