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  1. A New Year

    Here's the latest tracker charts for the first week of the new year.

    Current Fund Updates-2010-fund-allocation-~-top-50-chart-3-jpg
    Current Fund Updates-2010-cash-stock-exp-~-top-50-chart-1-jpg

    The Top 50 are holding fast to a bullish position. These are generally not the folks who've been moving to cash the past week or so.

    Current Fund Updates-total-fund-allocation-chart-3-jpg
    Current Fund Updates-2010-cash-stock-total-exp-chart-1-jpg

    The Total Tracker shows a continued uptick in cash levels. That's a rise of 10% in the past 2 weeks.

    I don't have much ...
  2. Final Read Before the New Year

    The Seven Sentinels remain in a buy condition, but now that the last trading day of 2010 is over I wanted to take a look at where they stand going into the new year.

    4/15/04 - If the market is down...-$namo-jpg

    NAMO has definitely taken a turn lower the past few trading days, while NYMO has tracked mostly sideways. NAMO is on a sell while NYMO is just barely a buy.

    4/15/04 - If the market is down...-$nahl-jpg

    Not surprisingly, NAHL is tracking lower while NYHL is moving sideways. ...
  3. Sentiment Does Matter

    We're closing out the year this week and guess what's #1 on the TSP Tracker list? Yep...the Sentiment Survey.
    One of the best tools we have available is sentiment, and our own survey has showed its worth in spades this year.

    It looks like some TSPers closed out their positions going into the new year as cash levels rose while stock allocations dipped. I was expecting light trade this coming week with a probable upward bias, but China unexpectedly raised it's interest rate by ...
  4. Something to Consider

    Back on my 2 Dec blog I pointed out that the Seven Sentinels were all flashing buys, but that I couldn't confirm the signal without NYMO hitting a new 28 day trading high. On 3 Dec the Sentinels remained in an unconfirmed buy mode. I chose to err on the side of caution as I was concerned about whipsaws, which is what the signal confirmation is suppose to help mitigate. But I did say that if one is more inclined towards risk, you may want to buy this market anyway even though I myself would not. ...

    Updated 12-22-2010 at 07:47 PM by coolhand

  5. Bullishness Down, Stock Allocations Up

    Relatively speaking of course. Bullishness is down in our own survey (albeit modestly), but stock allocations are up for the new week.

    It seems to me (based on media news items and message board sentiment) that most traders have now gotten the memo that the Fed is going to drive up stock prices (with QE2 and maybe QE3). As a result, fear appears to be slowly disappearing from the market. Remember those big whipsaw events from low to high and vice versa in months past? Mostly gone ...
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