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  1. Another Break Higher

    Yesterday I had reiterated that while the Seven Sentinels were technically still in buy mode, they had issued an unconfirmed sell signal earlier this week, which I took as a warning, but not necessarily one that would see confirmation. Especially given BPCOMPQ had made a bullish move higher yesterday.

    Today the action was fairly robust and several indexes hit new 2-year highs as a result. So it would seem we've broken out to the upside. Again.

    European debt offerings ...
  2. Nothing's Changed

    A positive open at the start of trading today was a welcome sign that maybe a low has been put in and the market is resuming its advance, but some mysterious weakness in early afternoon trade forced the major averages to their support levels before another reversal took hold that helped the broader market close with modest gains.

    So nothing's changed. The market is technically still on sound footing even though sentiment remains uncomfortably bullish and bouts of internal pressure ...
  3. Another Weak Open

    Another bout of early weakness led many traders to once again get defensive or even go short, but true to form the market rallied back closing mixed on the day.

    Internals were not looking good early on and I felt the need to issue another morning alert about the possibility of getting a Seven Sentinels sell signal by the close, and while the market did indeed come back in large measure it was not enough to avert an unconfirmed sell signal from the Seven Sentinels. That means the ...
  4. Seven Sentinels on Continued Alert

    I won't know for sure until this evening, but once again morning trading is weak, which could easily translate into a Seven Sentinels sell signal if current action holds or gets worse.

    It's important to remember that this is an intermediate term signal and that anything can happen day to day, meaning that even if a sell signal is issued this afternoon the market may bounce in the days ahead, but not necessarily enough to cause another buy signal (whipsaw).

    I can only ...
  5. Big Time Spike

    The first week of the new year is now behind us and in spite of a return to volatile action the uptrend appears to be intact. Here's how we're positioned going into the second week:

    4/16/04 transfer effective 4/19/04-2010-fund-allocation-~-top-50-chart-3-jpg
    4/16/04 transfer effective 4/19/04-2010-cash-stock-exp-~-top-50-chart-1-jpg

    The Top 50 haven't changed their overall allocation too much, but they did put more cash to work. But the real surprise is the total tracker.

    4/16/04 transfer effective 4/19/04-total-fund-allocation-chart-3-jpg
    4/16/04 transfer effective 4/19/04-2010-cash-stock-total-exp-chart-1-jpg

    For most ...
S&P 500 (C Fund)
DWCPF (S Fund)
Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index (^DWCPF)
EFA (I Fund)
iShares MSCI EAFE Index (EFA)
AGG (F Fund)
iShares Lehman Aggregate Bond (AGG)