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The current rally really has a lot of experienced traders wondering just how much higher the stock market can go since the February bottom. It's very hard to predict a top; especially when global markets are being propped up by liquidity. What I can predict is that a top will come eventually.
Here is a 3 year weekly chart of the S&P 500. We can see that the bull market largely hit its peak in the Spring of 2015; almost 1 year ago. Since
Since the first 6 weeks of the year, which saw a correction of more than 10% across most global equity indexes, stocks have come roaring back. It's now been more than 7 weeks since the low and the S&P 500 is holding above both its 50 and 200 day moving averages. That's bullish at face value, but let's check under the hood.
This chart gives us an idea of what some of the internals show with respect to the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE),
Updated 04-17-2016 at 08:42 AM by coolhand
Is it a bear market rally, or something else? The S&P 500 was up for the 5th week in a row last week. The move has seen little in the way of dips, which is typical when the liquidity pumps get turned on for an extended period of time.
What's obvious to anyone with more than a casual interest in the stock market is that global growth concerns did not dissipate, it got preempted. Of course, there were a lot of shorts in the market a few weeks back and that helped the bulls more than
About a month ago, it was looking like global markets were on the cusp of falling apart. Many technical indicators were on sells and sentiment was getting rather bearish overall (including some of the smart money surveys). January was down and that certainly did not help optimism given the odds heavily favor a negative year when January ends lower. In mid-February, the shorts were piling up and that often means a reversal is just a matter time.
It was, and that reversal has been
Updated 03-13-2016 at 03:53 PM by coolhand
It wasn't too long ago that the current market was acting very much like a bear. And it was global in nature with many charts rolling over and technical indicators suggesting more downside was in store.
But it was a bear trap. And a heavy duty one too.
The S&P 500 hit a double bottom in mid-February and hardly looked back.
With global growth concerns painting a dire economic picture, central banks around
Updated 03-06-2016 at 08:30 PM by coolhand