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Coolhand's Market Analysis

A weekly snapshot of current TSP allocations for both the Top 50 and the Total Tracker. I also try to accompany the allocation charts with some measure of technical analysis, normally using the S&P 500.

  1. Averages End Mixed for the Week

    Last week, I said I was neutral as the indicators were beginning to hint at toppy behavior. I thought we might be in for some sideways movement with some degree of volatility. The week ended up mixed, so my expectation was reasonably on target. I said that while we were due a deeper correction, pin-pointing when that happens and from what level is difficult to ascertain. The main obstacles for the bears to my eye were, and still are, bullish readings on NAAIM, breadth and liquidity.

  2. Bears Get Hammered Again

    Last week, I said the chances of a pullback were rising. I felt that is was time to start getting more defensive as the bulk of the rally was likely behind us. But NAAIM was bullish, as was liquidity and breadth. The fact that so many technical indicators were now positive is often an early warning, but tops are very difficult to call. I thought that the market might bias higher last week, but thought we should look for weakness to being around mid-week. That weakness came on Thursday, but not until ...
  3. The Bull Hits Fresh Highs

    Last week, I said that I thought the market was probably close to a bottom. I had my eye on Weird Wolly Wednesday as the day we might confirm a bottom and thought we'd get some weakness during a volatile trading day. We got neither after the market dipped on Tuesday, but roared to life on Wednesday with a bias higher the rest of the week.

    It's easy to miss the big moves in this market with all of the chopping up and down for weeks. And now, in a matter of just a few days, the market ...
  4. Have We Bottomed?

    Last week, I said I was looking higher for the new week. I thought the market might be poised for an upside breakout. The fact was and perhaps still is, that price has been resilient, with downside traction remaining limited. This helped keep me in the bullish camp along with positive breadth and liquidity.

    As it turned out, the TSP stock funds closed mixed on the week, with the C fund posting a modest gain, while the S fund was down modestly and I fund moderately lower. Thursday's ...
  5. Holding the Line for Now

    Last week, I said I was neutral. I opined that with recent all-time highs tagged not too long ago on the DWCPF, I had to give some weight to a possible correction of 4-5% and maybe even more over the days or weeks ahead. That's still valid. I noted that the BKX (Bank Index) has been weak of late, with price closing at its 50 dma the previous Friday. But then Monday, the BKX took off and rallied hard for most of the week. I felt that remaining long in the C, S, or I funds as long as breadth, liquidity ...
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S&P 500 (C Fund)
DWCPF (S Fund)
Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index (^DWCPF)
EFA (I Fund)
iShares MSCI EAFE Index (EFA)
AGG (F Fund)
iShares Lehman Aggregate Bond (AGG)