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Coolhand's Market Analysis

A weekly snapshot of current TSP allocations for both the Top 50 and the Total Tracker. I also try to accompany the allocation charts with some measure of technical analysis, normally using the S&P 500.

  1. Working Out the Kinks

    It was another down week last week, unless you were in the I or F funds. But the good news is that there were two upside reversals last week that are highly suggestive of a bottom being in.

    Charts and Stuff-s-p-500-png

    The S&P 500 shows us that price gapped lower last Wednesday, breaking and closing well under the 50 dma. But then we see two back-to-back rallys that erased a good portion of Wednesday's losses and that puts price with striking distance of overhead resistance ...
  2. More of the Same?

    I really thought the market was going to do better last week than it did. All three TSP stock funds closed with weekly losses, and it was the S fund that led the way again.

    Transfer 8/25 for 8/26/04-s-p-500-png

    The S&P 500 has traded in a range for the better part of 3 weeks now. It tested its previous all-time high early in the week last week, but fell back by week's end. Still, it's in the middle of its range so it wouldn't take much for it to retest that line of resistance ...
  3. EFA Madness

    Last week, I said I was leaning bullish for the week on solid breadth and liquidity readings. I also noted that NAAIM was bullish, which is bullish for the market in general.

    But it was a tough week for those of us in the S fund as that index closed just 0.04% higher. And it took a big Friday rally just to get back to even. The C fund fared better with a 0.66% gain, but it was the I fund (EFA) that really stood out as it tacked on a cool 2.57% gain. I really don't know how long that ...

    Updated 05-07-2017 at 04:48 AM by coolhand

  4. One Day at a Time

    In my last post in my account talk thread, I said that the options smart money was pretty bearish and NAAIM got more bullish. That told me we were likely to see short-term weakness, but more than likely it would not last given NAAIM's bullish disposition (along with the technical indicators in general). We got the weakness Friday, but with the exception of small caps, the bears didn't get as much traction as they might have liked.

    C-S-I funds-s-p-500-png

    Price ...

    Updated 04-29-2017 at 07:09 PM by coolhand

  5. Keeping It Simple

    Last week, I said I was expecting the market to bias higher. The up and down nature of trading didn't change, but by week's end the market was higher. All three TSP stock funds were up as the S fund more than doubled the C fund, which came in 2nd place with a gain of 0.87% to the S fund's impressive 2.07%. The I fund just did keep its head above water with a 0.11% gain.

    Rod's Account Talk-spx-jpg

    The S&P 500 started the week under its 50 dma, tested it on Thursday, ...
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S&P 500 (C Fund)
DWCPF (S Fund)
Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index (^DWCPF)
EFA (I Fund)
iShares MSCI EAFE Index (EFA)
AGG (F Fund)
iShares Lehman Aggregate Bond (AGG)