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Coolhand's Market Analysis

A weekly snapshot of current TSP allocations for both the Top 50 and the Total Tracker. I also try to accompany the allocation charts with some measure of technical analysis, normally using the S&P 500.

  1. Bias Remains Higher

    Last week, I said I was leaning bullish for the new week as downside pressure was not particularly worrisome. I also pointed out that breadth and liquidity remained bullish along with the smart money at NAAIM. For the week, the C and S funds were up moderately, but the I fund was down a bit.

    DOW CHART-s-p-500-png

    The S&P 500 rallied sharply last Monday to a fresh all-time high, but then reversed sharply on Tuesday with modestly dips again on Wednesday and Thursday. ...

    Updated 06-25-2017 at 09:30 AM by coolhand

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  2. Keeping Everyone Guessing

    It looks like volatility is back again, though for how long I don't know. Tuesday's selling pressure took back the bulk of Monday's gains, though the DWCPF gave them back and bit more. There didn't appear to be any real reason for the reversal, but there doesn't always have to be one.

    DOW CHART-spx-jpg

    Price on the S&P 500 did not quite fill that last gap created by Monday's rally. Momentum has turned back down again.

    DOW CHART-dwcpf-jpg ...
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  3. Bears Beware

    In my last blog, I said I was neutral heading into the new week and thought that volatility might become a bit more prevalent after the previous week's wild action. It might not have been a particularly volatile week, but it was neutral as the EFA was virtually unchanged, the DWCPF was moderately lower and the S&P 500 posted a modest gain.

    Transfer 8/25 for 8/26/04-s-p-500-png

    Volume was way up on Friday, but it was options expiration, so it's not unusual in that context. Momentum ...

    Updated 06-18-2017 at 07:37 PM by coolhand

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  4. Something is Changing

    The Comey probe was one of the bigger stories last week, although the UK vote is up there in importance too. In spite of anything the MSM says, Trump came out looking pretty good. Over in the UK, things got much more dicey. Now, I don't want to do a political analysis, but there is no question that politics ties in with Central Bank activity (and its innumerable rabbit holes). And that means it can and often does have a profound effect of the stock market (global). Friday's wild action is indicative ...
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  5. Blue Skies Ahead?

    Disappointing jobs report? No problem. That should help keep interest rates low for the time being. Certainly our F fund is in agreement with that perspective as it remains in full bull mode.

    I was bullish for last week, but cautioned we could see some weakness should the market need to gather some strength before pushing higher. And that's largely what we saw as the first half of the week was saw some moderate selling pressure, but the last 2 days erased those losses and then some ...

    Updated 06-04-2017 at 07:07 PM by coolhand

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S&P 500 (C Fund)
S&P 500 INDEX,RTH (^GSPC)
DWCPF (S Fund)
Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index (^DWCPF)
EFA (I Fund)
iShares MSCI EAFE Index (EFA)
AGG (F Fund)
iShares Lehman Aggregate Bond (AGG)