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Coolhand's Market Analysis

A weekly snapshot of current TSP allocations for both the Top 50 and the Total Tracker. I also try to accompany the allocation charts with some measure of technical analysis, normally using the S&P 500.

  1. Keeping It Simple

    Last week, I said I was expecting the market to bias higher. The up and down nature of trading didn't change, but by week's end the market was higher. All three TSP stock funds were up as the S fund more than doubled the C fund, which came in 2nd place with a gain of 0.87% to the S fund's impressive 2.07%. The I fund just did keep its head above water with a 0.11% gain.

    Rod's Account Talk-spx-jpg

    The S&P 500 started the week under its 50 dma, tested it on Thursday, ...
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  2. Buckle Up

    Yes, I am still expecting an upside breakout on the major averages sooner or later, but geopolitical tensions can sure challenge a bulls resolve. There was a lot of intrigue surrounding the air strike of a Syrian airbase late last week. The fact that it occurred almost parallel to the wining and dining of the Chinese President and his Generals (who were not given advance notice of the event) by President Trump at his Mar-a-Lago estate was almost surreal. Futures dove in the early hours on the news, ...
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  3. Hitting Resistance

    Since testing and bouncing off an important line of support the previous week, the S&P 500 is fast approaching a declining line of resistance.

    C-S-I funds-spx-jpg

    We can see that price pulled back a bit on Friday, just shy of testing that line of resistance. Since peaking at the beginning of March, price has stair-stepped lower as we enter April. Overall though, price is not all that far from its peak and the longer term remains bullish as price remains above ...
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  4. The Bull Awakens

    Last week, I posted a chart of the NYSE and I said that price was likely to find support between the 2 lines I drew on the chart. I also said that there was a large, weekly doji that showed how much of a battle there was between the bulls and the bears; a battle the bulls won 2 weeks ago, but they had to lift the NYSE off a deep low. That low was about in the middle of my support area. I cautioned that price was fighting to stay above the 50 dma, but that overall I was leaning bullish for the coming ...
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  5. The Battle Continues

    Last week, I said that there was some key support areas getting tested among the major indexes.

    Mean returns & standard deviations for each fund for past 3-5 years-nyse-png

    This is the weekly chart of the NYSE that I posted last week. If you look at the red candlestick that depicts the weekly action from 2 weeks ago, you'll see that price settled right at the top of an area that I felt might be a reasonable area to look for support across the broader market. Last week's action produced a large, weekly doji that ...

    Updated 05-22-2016 at 04:43 PM by coolhand

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S&P 500 (C fund)
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Dow Completion (S fund)
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EFA (I fund)
[Chart]
Bonds (F fund)
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