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Coolhand's Market Analysis

Big Time Spike

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5 Comments
by
coolhand
, 01-09-2011 at 06:53 PM (2712 Views)
The first week of the new year is now behind us and in spite of a return to volatile action the uptrend appears to be intact. Here's how we're positioned going into the second week:

4/16/04 transfer effective 4/19/04-2010-fund-allocation-~-top-50-chart-3-jpg
4/16/04 transfer effective 4/19/04-2010-cash-stock-exp-~-top-50-chart-1-jpg

The Top 50 haven't changed their overall allocation too much, but they did put more cash to work. But the real surprise is the total tracker.

4/16/04 transfer effective 4/19/04-total-fund-allocation-chart-3-jpg
4/16/04 transfer effective 4/19/04-2010-cash-stock-total-exp-chart-1-jpg

For most of last year the total tracker never showed much more than a few percent deviation from week to week. In just the first week of the new year though, there's a big time spike in stock allocations of about 25%. It was unexpected, but it is what it is. There's not a shortage of buy signals either, with the Sentiment Survey on a buy, the Seven Sentinels on a buy, and Intrepid Trader on a buy, it may have been a no brainer to jump in.

The S fund is still the fund of choice, with the I fund second. We'll see if the herd is right soon enough.

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Comments

  1. Intrepid_Timer's Avatar
    Interesting. Thanks CH!
  2. anthony's Avatar
    One of the most interesting things about Coolhand's tracker charts is the result you get when you layer them on top of the S&P500. Could be a new tracker worth paying attention to:




    Possible Trades? ...
    • Crossover Signal: Top 50 vs. Herd crossover as a buy/sell signal. Start 2010 in C Fund, Sell May 11, Buy Sept 27, Finish 2010 in C Fund = 13.37% gain on two IFTs and top 20% on the tracker.

    • Max Diversion Signal: Buy/Sell when Top 50 at 80% stocks at the same time as Herd at 20% stocks and vice versa. Start 2010 in C Fund, Sell April 19, Buy 26 May, Sell Dec 17, Finish 2010 in G Fund = 24.12% gain on four IFTs and top 25 on the tracker.
    Numbers are very loosely estimated with no testing, no previous months to compare, no G Fund gains included, and dates ballparked. Still interesting though.
  3. coolhand's Avatar
    That's is very interesting. I tried to layer the S&P a couple months ago, and while I eventually was able to do it, it wasn't easy as I don't have the software to do it right. Maybe Snagit?

    I know there's got to be some methodology like a crossover signal that would make this more useful too. I had little data to work with when I started, but maybe I've got enough now to develop some kind of trigger points.

    Quote Originally Posted by anthony
    One of the most interesting things about Coolhand's tracker charts is the result you get when you layer them on top of the S&P500. Could be a new tracker worth paying attention to:




    Possible Trades? ...
    • Crossover Signal: Top 50 vs. Herd crossover as a buy/sell signal. Start 2010 in C Fund, Sell May 11, Buy Sept 27, Finish 2010 in C Fund = 13.37% gain on two IFTs and top 20% on the tracker.

    • Max Diversion Signal: Buy/Sell when Top 50 at 80% stocks at the same time as Herd at 20% stocks and vice versa. Start 2010 in C Fund, Sell April 19, Buy 26 May, Sell Dec 17, Finish 2010 in G Fund = 24.12% gain on four IFTs and top 25 on the tracker.
    Numbers are very loosely estimated with no testing, no previous months to compare, no G Fund gains included, and dates ballparked. Still interesting though.
  4. anthony's Avatar
    Nothing fancy to the image build -- all done in powerpoint. I pasted yours into a new file after saving it as a .jpg. Then I pasted a screenshot (PrtScrn button) of my computer with the Yahoo S&P chart up as another image. I cropped and resized the screenshot to line up right by the dateline with yours, then set the Yahoo chart's background as a transparent color so you could see both. Last group them together and save the grouped image as a .jpg. Ready for inserting in a post. Probably a pretty quick daily exercise to add context to your charts before you blog. Good luck and thanks for your writing and analysis efforts.
  5. grandma's Avatar
    coolhand, anthony - that is slick ! Does this indicate we are the Smart Money?

S&P500 (C Fund) (delayed)

(Stockcharts.com Real-time) 		DWCPF (S Fund) (delayed)

(Stockcharts.com Real-time) 		EFA (I Fund) (delayed)

(Stockcharts.com Real-time) 		BND (F Fund) (delayed)

(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
Yahoo Finance Realtime TSP Fund Tracking Index Quotes