Coolhand's Market Analysis

Given last week's sell-off I can't say that I'm surprised that the market "tried" to stage a comeback today. But by the close the major averages ended the day mixed.

Bonds took another shellacking however, and that is becoming a troubling sign. Exactly what that means I can only speculate, but I suspect inflation may be the fear. And that's not a friend to bonds or stocks. It's entirely too early to say though, and we won't know the truth of it until it's somewhat in our rearview mirror.

The dollar wasted no time reversing its meager 0.2% loss on Friday to post a gain of 0.8% at the close of trade today. Another troubling sign for stocks moving forward.

Here's today's charts:



Still on sells for NAMO and NYMO.



Sells for NAHL and NYHL too.



TRIN flipped to a buy, but TRINQ went deeper into sell territory.



BPCOMPQ remains on a sell.

So 6 of 7 signals are flashing sells, which keeps the system on a sell. My short term system is still on a sell too, but did move a bit towards a more bullish stance today. I suspect that's because we'll see another bounce before the week is over, but playing the long side of what is probably the beginning of a bearish intermediate term trend is a risky bet, and not one I'm willing to take given a rising dollar and a bond sell-off in progress. The only reason I'm not expecting a deeper run lower in the very short term is that this is OPEX week and that tends to put a floor under the market until it's over.