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Coolhand's Market Analysis

Have We Bottomed?

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Last week, I said I was looking higher for the new week. I thought the market might be poised for an upside breakout. The fact was and perhaps still is, that price has been resilient, with downside traction remaining limited. This helped keep me in the bullish camp along with positive breadth and liquidity.

As it turned out, the TSP stock funds closed mixed on the week, with the C fund posting a modest gain, while the S fund was down modestly and I fund moderately lower. Thursday's sell-off put a crimp on the bull's chances for a better week. Still, resilience remains a big factor the bulls.

Does borrowing against your TSP show up on a credit bureau report?-s-p-500-png

The S&P 500 broke through its rising 50 dma on Thursday, but popped back up above it to close out the week. It's fighting some lower lows, but maybe support in that rectangle area will hold (along with the 50 dma). Momentum remains biased to the downside and that's a headwind.

Does borrowing against your TSP show up on a credit bureau report?-dwcpf-png

The DWCPF also closed under the 50 dma on Thursday, but rallied smartly the very next day to get back to the middle of its current trading range.

Does borrowing against your TSP show up on a credit bureau report?-efa-png

The EFA has been in a trading range for more than 2 months now. The rising 50 dma has now reached the lower end of that range, with price testing that support line now. The 64.5 area is a key support area too. Momentum is negative.

My intermediate term system flipped negative on Thursday. Cumulative breadth on the NYSE was teetering on going negative too, but bounced off of its 21 day exponential moving average on Friday. Liquidity remains in expansion.

Sentiment remains the same; bullish NAAIM and neutral TSP Talk surveys. The OEX is neutral for Monday.

The market may have bottomed. We've seen this play out too many times where the indicators get wobbly and that's about when we turn back up. The floor never seems too far away these days.

For next week, I'm neutral to modestly bullish.

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S&P500 (C Fund) (delayed)

(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
DWCPF (S Fund) (delayed)

(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
EFA (I Fund) (delayed)

(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
BND (F Fund) (delayed)

(Stockcharts.com Real-time)

Yahoo Finance Realtime TSP Fund Tracking Index Quotes