Coolhand's Market Analysis

While the market was largely flat on Friday (that bullish OEX P/C was apparently not enough), the week ended in the green as all three TSP stock funds moved higher.



The S&P 500 is hitting fresh all-time highs after finally breaking through resistance in the 2400 area last week. Volume has been falling off a bit on the way up and strength went flat on Friday.



The DWCPF posted a modest loss on Friday, which is not biggie, but price hit resistance in the 1215 area on Thursday. That's a bit troubling given this index is not leading the S&P 500.



The EFA is looking toppy after probing the 66.25 area for several days and then dipping a bit on Friday. Strength and momentum are looking shaky. The chart remains bullish, but the indicators are starting to struggle.



The BKX is really having trouble getting above its falling 50 dma. It still hasn't fallen apart by any means, but price is getting compressed between that 50 dma and support in the 88 area.

Sentiment is a mixed bag. NAAIM is pretty bullish, and that's smart money. But our TSP Talk survey came in overly bullish and that isn't what I want to see, but we've seen this survey pegged deep into bull territory before with little downside to show for it, so it's hardly a lock that significant selling pressure is near. Especially with NAAIM practically "all in". The OEX P/C is still bullish heading into Tuesday (Monday being a holiday).

Breadth and liquidity remain bullish.

So I've been bullish for a little while now and the market has been biasing higher, but the lack of upside conviction by the DWCPF is disappointing to say the least. That index is still well away from testing its previous all-time high even as the S&P 500 is sitting near its recent peak. I don't like to see the banks struggling either. But this market always seems to find a way to push the bull forward.

For next week, I am leaning bullish again, but I would not be surprised by some weakness either to prime the next push higher.