Coolhand's Market Analysis

In my last post in my account talk thread, I said that the options smart money was pretty bearish and NAAIM got more bullish. That told me we were likely to see short-term weakness, but more than likely it would not last given NAAIM's bullish disposition (along with the technical indicators in general). We got the weakness Friday, but with the exception of small caps, the bears didn't get as much traction as they might have liked.



Price on the S&P 500 shows a moderate dip, but no real technical damage. Yes, the S&P 500 has still failed to push past its peak at the beginning of March and that could be interpreted as a possible bearish double top in play, but I don't see that as a likely outcome with liquidity and breadth still bullish.



The DWCPF took the biggest hit on Friday, but that's not surprising given it had the biggest gains too.



The EFA continues to surprise me. There are very few large, red candlesticks on this chart. It remains a bullish chart, but it's also overbought.



The Bank Index took another big hit on Friday, but it can still recover if it can put in a higher low.

I am leaning bullish for next week. Breadth and liquidity remain solidly in the bull's favor. The options market is neutral heading into Monday, but NAAIM is bullish, which supports staying long stocks (TSP stock funds).