Coolhand's Market Analysis

Is it a bear market rally, or something else? The S&P 500 was up for the 5th week in a row last week. The move has seen little in the way of dips, which is typical when the liquidity pumps get turned on for an extended period of time.

What's obvious to anyone with more than a casual interest in the stock market is that global growth concerns did not dissipate, it got preempted. Of course, there were a lot of shorts in the market a few weeks back and that helped the bulls more than just a little bit as short covering was a a big part of this rally.



Breath has been quite impressive the last few weeks. Take a look at the relentless rise of cumulative breadth (NYAD). RSI is now about as high as its been in at least one year. NYSI has soared and momentum (NYMO) remains positive. The indicators on this chart are stretched, but they could certainly get stretched further still.



The VIX has been on a sell for a while now. Its in an area where a reversal might get triggered at any time.

Seasonality favored the bulls in the first half of March, but it favors the bears in the latter half.

It may not matter though, if breadth continues to rise.