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Coolhand's Market Analysis

Now Comes the Moment of Truth

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by
coolhand
, 12-19-2009 at 10:34 AM (1892 Views)
OPEX is out of the way. That means the next two weeks will reveal a truer picture of market dynamics, even if it is the holidays.

I won't bother to try and analyze Friday's action too much, but volume was significantly above the 10-day average again. It appeared dip buyers were at work in the final hour of trading too. But it remains to be seen whether this is as bullish as it appears on the surface. Especially given early sentiment readings for this week. But I'm still waiting for some of the polls to be released, so I'll hold off on any analysis there, but I suspect it's going to be bulled up again.

Let's look at Friday's charts:

CNBC Pole-$namo-jpg

All four remain on a sell here, but not by much. I'd be very careful interpreting this as bullish. I tend to believe more work needs to be done on the downside, but we'll know soon enough as the week unfolds.

CNBC Pole-$trin-jpg

TRIN and TRINQ flipped to buys here. I suspect we may see some early follow-through from Friday's late buying spree spilling into Monday morning, but I'm thinking it won't last long. BPCOMPQ remains on a sell.

CNBC Pole-allocation-fund-~-2009-chart-3-jpg
CNBC Pole-total-cash-stock-exp-~-2009-chart-1-jpg

Our Top 25% pushed a few more chips into the market for holiday trading.

Earlier last week I compiled all tracker participants to see how they were positioned and over 59% of TSP funds were commited to stocks. As of this morning, that number is over 63%. It actually mirrors our sentiment poll. Interesting.

So we have 5 of 7 signals on a sell, but all are still very close to their respective EMAs. I have not changed my short term sentiment for the holiday trading period. I'm still on the bearish side given sentiment and I still think NAMO and NYMO continue to be somewhat toppy. I'm hoping to have all the latest sentiment poll numbers tomorrow and I'll post those Sunday evening most likely. See you then.

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  1. hicomndr's Avatar
    Coolhand: thanks for all your efforts. As I work my way through the financial retirement maze I have found your work enlightening. I have been retired for over 2 years and frequently monitor the AutoTracker members for trends and risk philosophy. I often wonder whether the moves reported are actually made with real $ or are they just part of a shell game to see who gets to claim the greatest return. Could be misleading to others trying to increase their real TSP funds.
  2. Birchtree's Avatar
    Most of us don't play games - why bother. It becomes too much work trying to keep up with what is real and what is not real.
  3. coolhand's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by hicomndr
    Coolhand: thanks for all your efforts. As I work my way through the financial retirement maze I have found your work enlightening. I have been retired for over 2 years and frequently monitor the AutoTracker members for trends and risk philosophy. I often wonder whether the moves reported are actually made with real $ or are they just part of a shell game to see who gets to claim the greatest return. Could be misleading to others trying to increase their real TSP funds.
    YW HC. I have no reason not to believe the auto-tracker numbers. They are reflective of over 230 individual members. That's a goodly sum. Any false reporting should be minimal and would certainly be diluted by the majority.

    Thanks for reading.
  4. PessOptimist's Avatar
    I asked the question about autotracker accounts and real world accounts when I first joined. Out of four responses, three said their auto tracker account was the same as their real account, one said it was not.

    There you have it, a real scientific poll. 75% of them reflect the real investments.
  5. coolhand's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by PessOptimist
    I asked the question about autotracker accounts and real world accounts when I first joined. Out of four responses, three said their auto tracker account was the same as their real account, one said it was not.

    There you have it, a real scientific poll. 75% of them reflect the real investments.
    Every sentiment poll out there is questioned as to its objectivity, but for a real student of sentiment they have been gold when it comes to trading. The tracker is not much different to me than a sentiment poll. And how much manipulation can be done with 2 IFTs per month?

    Besides, even the big money has to rely on these polls for them to mean anything. So it affects everyone equally.
  6. anthony's Avatar
    Real or fake (why bother ...), one thing not accounted for is the new money injected into real accounts in monthly pay and/or matching contributions. Maybe the autotracker should start everyone out with $100,000 on 1 January and give them $1000 or $2000 a month to simulate new contributions and the effect of DCA.
  7. grandma's Avatar
    We did that when we started the tracker - or was it $1,000? On one of the menu items you can see amt made & lost by clicking the name, But this may not be what you are looking for. We didn't get anything added tho- some of us are retired & have no new contributions.
    Some have gone & beyond, others of us are either lolly-gagging along, or really headed the wrong direction!

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