Coolhand's Market Analysis

It is no secret that this January's performance is the worst ever for this particular month. But last week the market managed to stage somewhat of a rally. The big question of course, is whether the worst is over or not?

That depends on the time frame.

In the short term, it may be. But longer term...



The Wilshire 4500 is made up all the U.S. stocks except those in the S&P 500. This weekly chart, which I posted ...

On Friday, price on the S&P 500 dropped below last August's intra-day low, but managed to close a higher price point. That simply puts the index at the edge of a precipice. We've seen this before. The index gets close to falling off a cliff and then does an about face. I am not so sure it will be so accommodating this time as the Wilshire 4500 and EFA (S and I fund equivalents) have already broken through last Summer's lows.



The chart ...

Last year was a challenging year for many as the TSP stock funds ended the year mixed. And as paltry as the gains were for the G fund it delivered the best performance last year of all the funds.

We enter 2016 with no shortage of stock market concerns. Crude prices are at their lowest levels in years, which may be good for consumers, but it is an indication of questionable growth prospects for global stock markets moving forward.

China is devaluing their currency, ...

First, congratulations to those who were able to tack on gains of at least 5% this year. That would be a pretty decent return given that the best performance among our TSP funds was the G fund in 2015; and that only returned 2.05%.

I managed to beat all of the TSP funds except the G fund this year with what appears to be a mediocre return of just 1.77%. I am not particularly happy with that number, but when I look at the auto-tracker, that return still puts me in the top 30% of those ...