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Coolhand's Market Analysis

A weekly snapshot of current TSP allocations for both the Top 50 and the Total Tracker. I also try to accompany the allocation charts with some measure of technical analysis, normally using the S&P 500.

  1. Bearish Sentiment Yields More Gains

    Last week, the Total Tracker revealed a modest dip in stock allocations (less than 3.5%), but sentiment was much more bearish as reported by our sentiment survey. That bearish sentiment helped stocks tack on significant gains for the week.

    This week, the Total Tracker shows more profit taking as total stock allocations dropped again. Bullish levels rose and bearish levels dropped in this week's sentiment survey, which keeps the sentiment survey in a hold (buy) condition.
    ...
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  2. Sentiment Gets Bearish

    Last week we saw a spike in bullishness on the Total Tracker, which showed stock allocations rose by more than 9% for the week. This was in addition to a near 12% jump in stock allocations the previous two weeks. That kind of bullishness is often punished, but not last week. Of course it was OPEX week and that may have been a contributing factor in favor of the bulls (along with liquidity). Sentiment has also not been uniform across some of the more notable surveys either.

    Our sentiment ...
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  3. Bulls Charge Ahead

    The most notable point to make for this week's tracker charts is that the herd (total tracker) got much more bullish in the wake of recent weakness (and subsequent rally). Let's look at the charts:

    Let someone manage your own money???-top-50-fund-allocation-jpg
    Let someone manage your own money???-2012-top-50-trend-jpg

    The Top 50 have been holding relatively steady for weeks now. Total stock exposure is 83.2%, although that number dipped almost 5% for the coming week.

    Let someone manage your own money???-total-tracker-fund-allocation-jpg
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  4. Buying the Dip

    Last week the charts showed that the herd (total tracker) had increased their total stock allocation by a collective 11.35%. I said I thought that would be bearish in the short term and it was as the S and C funds dropped -1.06% and -0.67 respectively, while the I fund fell almost -2.8%.

    Looking at the charts for the new week, it looks like we bought the dip. At least the Top 50 did. Here's the charts:

    Transfer 5/26/ for 5/27/04-top-50-fund-allocation-jpg
    Transfer 5/26/ for 5/27/04-2012-top-50-trend-jpg ...
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  5. Volatility Ahead?

    March is now behind us and this market has been resilient to say the least, but how much longer can it levitate without a more serious pullback?

    Here's this week's tracker charts:

    CSB/REDUX Calculator-top-50-fund-allocation-jpg
    CSB/REDUX Calculator-2012-top-50-trend-jpg

    The Top 50 dropped their stock exposure by 8.14% to a total stock allocation of 78.06%. Longer term I think that's bullish given the high overall allocation, but caution is rising in the shorter term (days). ...
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S&P500 (C Fund) (delayed)

(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
DWCPF (S Fund) (delayed)

(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
EFA (I Fund) (delayed)

(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
BND (F Fund) (delayed)

(Stockcharts.com Real-time)

Yahoo Finance Realtime TSP Fund Tracking Index Quotes