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Coolhand's Market Analysis

A weekly snapshot of current TSP allocations for both the Top 50 and the Total Tracker. I also try to accompany the allocation charts with some measure of technical analysis, normally using the S&P 500.

  1. Dip in Stock Allocations

    First, I'd like to thank everyone for your support. It means a lot to me knowing I have many friends out there. This blog has been a tremendous learning experience for me and certainly not one I'd call easy so your expression of support was very meaningful.

    Let's take a look at this week's tracker charts.

    Roth IRA... a good time?-top-50-fund-allocation-jpg
    Roth IRA... a good time?-2012-top-50-trend-jpg

    The Top 50 shows a dip of -6% in stock allocations going into the new week for ...
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  2. Throttling Down

    I knew that at some point I'd have to scale back what had largely been a daily blog. And that point has now arrived. It's just too difficult for me to juggle all the events I'll be dealing with in the months ahead and think I can do this on a regular basis too. I'm not going to disappear, but my posting will be weekly at best. I'll maintain the Seven Sentinels on the tracker and I'll continue to post the tracker charts on the weekend.

    The Seven Sentinels do remain in a sell condition ...
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  3. Treasuries Hammered

    Treasuries encountered more selling pressure today, which sent the yield on the benchmark 10-year Note above 2.37%. That makes me very wary of this bull market.

    Transfer 5/26/ for 5/27/04-seven-sentinels-signal-png

    Seven Sentinels remained in a sell condition today.
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  4. Status Quo

    Not much change in the Tracker charts this week. There was one item of interest that I'd been anticipating for some time and this week it finally happened.
    We now have over 1,000 TSPers on the tracker.

    Transfer 5/26/ for 5/27/04-top-50-fund-allocation-jpg
    Transfer 5/26/ for 5/27/04-2012-top-50-trend-jpg

    Stock allocations for the Top 50 moved up by 4.2% to a total stock allocation of 92.2%.

    Transfer 5/26/ for 5/27/04-total-tracker-fund-allocation-jpg
    Transfer 5/26/ for 5/27/04-2012-total-tracker-trend-jpg

    Stock allocations ...
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  5. Sentiment Shifts

    As quickly as sentiment has shifted to a bearish stance when it appeared the market was poised to drop (causing short covering rallies), there are now indications that sentiment may be turning to a more bullish posture.

    CSB-naaim-survey-manager-sentiment-jpg

    This is the The NAAIM Survey of Manager Sentiment chart. The link for this is here. Like many sentiment indicators, it has some measure of at least short term predictive value in gauging market direction. It jumped by more ...

    Updated 03-17-2012 at 03:27 PM by coolhand

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