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Coolhand's Market Analysis

Sentiment Gets Bearish

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Last week we saw a spike in bullishness on the Total Tracker, which showed stock allocations rose by more than 9% for the week. This was in addition to a near 12% jump in stock allocations the previous two weeks. That kind of bullishness is often punished, but not last week. Of course it was OPEX week and that may have been a contributing factor in favor of the bulls (along with liquidity). Sentiment has also not been uniform across some of the more notable surveys either.

Our sentiment survey for this week flipped back to a buy condition as bullish sentiment dropped from almost 62% to only 40%. But the charts indicate that bearish sentiment is only short term as total stock allocations remain relatively high. Here's the charts:

References-top-50-fund-allocation-jpg
References-2012-top-50-trend-jpg

Not much change for the Top 50.

References-total-tracker-fund-allocation-jpg
References-2012-total-tracker-trend-jpg

The herd dropped their total stock allocation by less than 3.5% going into the new week and now sport a total stock allocation of 58.54%.

The Seven Sentinels continue to remain in an intermediate term sell condition.

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  1. Sensei's Avatar
    Hi Coolhand - just a question out of curiosity. I use the Ocean's List throughout the week to check where we are putting our money. It currently shows about 63% in C/S/I.

    TSP Talk AutoTracker

    Is this list not updated daily? Where do you get your numbers? I don't mean to be a nit-picker, just want to make sure I'm using reliable information when making IFT decisions. Thanks!
  2. coolhand's Avatar
    I see any number of reasons for the difference. The biggest one however, is the total number of members on the tracker. Ocean's calculations shows he's using 890 as the total number of members. I'm showing approximately 1,039 members (includes systems such as the Seven Sentinels). I do take out the line items for the funds themselves and I also ignore L fund allocations, but those won't change the overall results by a significant amount (usually less than 2%).

    My numbers won't be "perfect", but the charts are only suppose to capture the general movement of the masses. I'd like to think I'm within about 2% of "perfect". Statistics are not an exact science after all.

    Still, I'd like to know why Ocean's total number of members is so much more different than mine. I do include "hidden" members. Perhaps that's the difference?

    As for the "how" in my calculations, I simply cut and paste the entire tracker into a spreadsheet each week, remove the "fund" line items and calculate the numbers using the lines that are left.

    I'm traveling all day today and won't be able to interact much for the balance of the week.

    Quote Originally Posted by Sensei
    Hi Coolhand - just a question out of curiosity. I use the Ocean's List throughout the week to check where we are putting our money. It currently shows about 63% in C/S/I.

    TSP Talk AutoTracker

    Is this list not updated daily? Where do you get your numbers? I don't mean to be a nit-picker, just want to make sure I'm using reliable information when making IFT decisions. Thanks!
  3. RealMoneyIssues's Avatar
    CH, thanks for your blogs and be safe on travel !!

    After asking CH this same question a few months ago, I have to agree with his assessment that the main difference between his crunching the Ocean's numbers is the hidden users. Although the L fund adds a little error, very few who use the AT use L funds.

    CH calcs is herd movements, so be careful following the herd, but do watch for those folks that have good past results and good current results for their movements... they must be doing something right!

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