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Coolhand's Market Analysis

Volatility Ahead?

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March is now behind us and this market has been resilient to say the least, but how much longer can it levitate without a more serious pullback?

Here's this week's tracker charts:

CSB/REDUX Calculator-top-50-fund-allocation-jpg
CSB/REDUX Calculator-2012-top-50-trend-jpg

The Top 50 dropped their stock exposure by 8.14% to a total stock allocation of 78.06%. Longer term I think that's bullish given the high overall allocation, but caution is rising in the shorter term (days).

CSB/REDUX Calculator-total-tracker-fund-allocation-jpg
CSB/REDUX Calculator-2012-total-tracker-trend-jpg

The Total Tracker shows that the herd has gotten at least short term bullish as total stock allocations rose this past week by 11.35% to a total stock allocation of 52.72%. The jump in bullishness for the new week may be bearish in the short term, but with total stock allocations only minimally above 50% I'd have to view that as longer term (months) bullish.

The Seven Sentinels remain in an Intermediate Term Sell condition.

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Comments

  1. Boghie's Avatar
    CH,

    I've noticed that a few folks I watch have split personalities. That also backs up the proposition that it will probably be washy in the short hall.

    The strangest thing about your TSPTalk Allocation charts is the barbell allocation action. Folks either seem to be in the 'G Fund' watching the grass grow or marching smartly (or heedlessly) in the riskiest of available funds (the 'S Fund'). I hope these folks are talking to the burning bush - otherwise they will hit a homer or strike out...
  2. u.s.dan's Avatar
    I think a lot has to do with IFT strategies. I wanted to get in and still have my two moves for April. But I am concerned about volatility

S&P500 (C Fund) (delayed)

(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
DWCPF (S Fund) (delayed)

(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
EFA (I Fund) (delayed)

(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
BND (F Fund) (delayed)

(Stockcharts.com Real-time)

Yahoo Finance Realtime TSP Fund Tracking Index Quotes