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Coolhand's Market Analysis

Bears Ambushed Again

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I may have a sizable cash position in my TSP account while this market is rising, but at least I'm not silly enough to short a rising market. But that's largely what drove today's outsized gains today as the bears got squeezed into the close.

Mr. Duke's Fund Update-polar-bear-jpg

There wasn't all that much bullish news either, unless one thinks the International Monetary Fund increasing its lending capacity between $600 Billion and $1 trillion is somehow bullish. Or maybe news of the World Bank lowering its global growth forecast was a positive? They dropped their 2012 growth forecast from 3.6% to 2.5% and the forecast for 2013 from 3.6% to 3.1%.

But then, that's probably some of the reasons why the bears were shorting this market. If you're long right now, you can thank them.

Domestic data was largely ignored today. December producer prices dipped 0.1%, but core prices rose by 0.3%. Industrial production in December was up by 0.4%, which was just under estimates calling for a 0.5% increase.

Here's tonight's charts:

Mr. Duke's Fund Update-namo-nymo-jpg

NAMO and NYMO both flipped back to buys.

Mr. Duke's Fund Update-nahl-nyhl-jpg

Interestingly, NAHL and NYHL dipped today (but remain on buys), and that makes today's action suspect. But I won't argue with the obvious trend, which continues to be up.

Mr. Duke's Fund Update-trin-trinq-jpg

TRIN and TRINQ are now on the same page again. Two more buys.

Mr. Duke's Fund Update-bpcompq-png

BPCOMPQ looks like it may be beginning another up leg as the signal is getting even move vertical. But it's also lifting away from that upper bollinger band and I can only wonder how long it can do that.

So all signals are on buys again, which keeps the system in an intermediate term buy condition.

As January goes, so goes the year (stock prices). Is that what they're trying to sell us? Call me cynical if you'd like, but I don't think I'll be subscribing to that old adage this year. But I can't deny the charts (I really haven't been for the most part). They're bullish.

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Comments

  1. u.s.dan's Avatar
    You referred to this as an OPEX week in a couple of recent blogs. What is OPEX?
  2. RealMoneyIssues's Avatar
  3. coolhand's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by u.s.dan
    You referred to this as an OPEX week in a couple of recent blogs. What is OPEX?
    Did that link help? I'm not an Options Trader, but I do understand that this group has the pontential to have a profound influence on the broader market each month. It helps give me some measure of perspective in trying to ascertain what the character of the market might be during the week of OPEX.
    Updated 01-19-2012 at 09:25 AM by coolhand
  4. Show-me's Avatar
    Remember that the federal reserve lent out billions of dollars at 0 percent interest and the market rally here.
  5. u.s.dan's Avatar
    I will be checking out the link. Thanks

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