Coolhand's Market Analysis

Stocks closed mixed today as the DOW dipped 0.02%, the S&P 500 ticked up 0.01%, while the Nasdaq tacked on 0.25%. The Wilshire 4500 (S fund) also closed up 0.25%, while the EAFE (I Fund) closed down 0.45%.

Data was limited today, but we did receive the Consumer Confidence Index number for December, which showed an increase to 64.5 from 56.0 the previous month. That was much better than estimates calling for 58.0.

We also got the Case-Shiller 20-city Index report, which showed housing prices falling 3.4% year over year.



Across the pond, the Italian 10-yr yield is around 7.00% ahead of the tomorrow's Italian bond auction. That has the potential to either spook or cheer the market and given the thin trading we could potentially see a big move if there are any surprises either way.

I don't normally include individual stock reports in my blog, but there was one today (Sears) that got my attention. Sears Holding fell a whopping 27.2% after the company announced same store sales dropped 5.2%. They also disclosed that they would be closing between 100 and 120 Kmart and Sears stores.

I found that to be somewhat of a paradox given the numerous headlines I'd been seeing recently, which indicated the consumer was alive and well. Maybe that's true, but this report from Sears still makes me wonder. But then again, these chains have been struggling for some time.

Here's today's charts:



Both NAMO and NYMO dipped, but remain on buys.



NAHL and NYHL also remain on buys.



TRIN flipped to a sell, while TRINQ remained on a buy.



BPCOMPQ ebbed a bit higher today and remains above the upper bollinger band, which keeps it in a buy condition. But it could flip to a sell without a lot of downside pressure should we get some. That's not something to be concerned about necessarily, but simply something to be aware of.

So the signals are mixed, which keeps the Seven Sentinels in an intermediate term buy condition.

I don't have much to add that I haven't already said in the past few blogs. Sentiment has been very bullish in some pockets, which suggests selling pressure may come soon, but seasonality is strong this time of year and can trump sentiment. The charts aren't saying much to me other than we are still in a market with an upward bias. And that Italian bond auction tomorrow could shake things up either way.

I remain 50/50 G and S, but l'm looking to lighten up even more if we see any strength into the end of the week.