Coolhand's Market Analysis

It's been several weeks since the Top 50 had a shift in stock allocation exceeding 10%, but this week there's movement at the top. Here's the charts:




The Top 50 increased their collective stock exposure by a healthy 17.82% going into the new trading week. Total stock allocation now sits at 34.06%. That's still not exactly bullish, but not nearly as bearish as it was last week. What I find interesting though, is their collective F fund holdings remain high at 19.04%. That particular fund has not done much in about 3 months, but with the G fund tacking on a whopping 0.06% of a penny each and every day, I can understand why one would at least give it a shot.




For the second week in a row, the herd had only a modest change in total allocation. Last week they increased their stock exposure by 0.11%. This week, stock exposure slipped by 0.39%. Total stock exposure now sits at 40.55%.

I don't have much to add this evening. Collectively, we're still quite risk averse from top to bottom. The rally that began during the first week of October was swift, and I suspect most of us (myself included) were not comfortable with the extreme action. Now the market sits at lofty levels for the year, although still several percentage points below the high for the year. But the holidays are coming, so there's still the chance a new high is made by year's end. I harbor reservations that we'll see new highs, but I think it really depends on sentiment.

And speaking of sentiment, our survey came in this week at 64% bulls and only 26% bears, which is a sell in any market. And we're due for some of that (selling).