Coolhand's Market Analysis

I'm going to do an abbreviated blog tonight as I'm not using a computer that has the software that I normally use, so I can't get all seven images posted. But I'll still speak to the two I'm leaving out.

Here's five of the charts:




NAMO and NYMO both dipped below the neutral line today and are flashing sells.

NAHL and NYHL are the two charts I won't be showing, but I did take a look at them. NAHL remains on a sell, while NYHL flipped to a buy. Both are very close to their respective trigger points however, which means they could flip the other way very easily depending on where this market goes in the short term.




TRIN is on a buy, while TRINQ just did remain on a sell. Neither is very telling of the short term direction of this market.



BPCOMPQ turned down a bit and flipped back to a sell. This could be an early warning, but it's only one day back in sell territory so I would just watch it very carefully for the moment.

So while today's signals are mixed, the system remains in a buy condition. We did have an unconfirmed sell signal on September 9th, which may still be in play as a warning, but recent strength may prove the downside is limited at this point. My guess is that the volatility will continue (no revelation there) and we'll probably be subject to continued whipsaw action. Since the market remains near the upper end of its trading channel I assess risk as very elevated at the moment even though we may see higher prices.

In addition, BPCOMPQ flipping to a sell today should raise the caution flag if it's not already raised.

I remain 100% F fund for now. As a side note, bonds are near their highs in spite of last week's rally, which says the bond ghouls are still seeing high risk in the equities market. If I was to go out on a limb here, I'd wager we are very close to another shot lower with bonds hitting new highs over the coming days. Given the FOMC policy statement tomorrow, that could serve as that catalyst. And while some may argue that any QE3 talk by the Fed tomorrow would rally the market, I would posit that quite the opposite could happen. But they may say nothing about it at all either, so we'll just have to see how it plays out.