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Coolhand's Market Analysis

It's All About Greece

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It was a quiet day today across the market, but the Greek financial tsunami continues to rise and that's been a focal point across the globe. But come Wednesday, all eyes will be on the Fed as they release their latest rate announcement with less than 2 weeks to go before QE2 expires. Perhaps it's expiration has already been priced in?

As for the market today, the major averages all posted moderate gains amid uninspiring action.

Let's go the charts:

PROBLEM-namo-nymo-jpg

NAMO and NYMO are moving back up and suggest higher prices in the short term. Both remain in a buy condition.

PROBLEM-nahl-nyhl-jpg

NAHL and NYHL showed little movement today and suggest that market internals are not strong. I consider NAMO and NYMO's movement today to be bullish, but these two signals are not on the same page.

PROBLEM-trin-trinq-jpg

TRIN and TRINQ have often been opposite each other in the past few weeks, but not today. Both are flashing buys and could be portending a big move coming. My guess is it could be to the upside given NAMO and NYMO's readings. But again, NAHL and NYHL aren't on the same page. But NAHL and NYHL are also wallowing at low levels, which could mean the market may be about to springboard higher.

PROBLEM-bpcompq-png

Here's where my bullish bias really gets challenged. BPCOMPQ, while still on a buy, tracked a bit lower today. And just like NAHL and NYHL it's not confirming a turn to the upside. This is problematic as this market cannot launch without this signal moving back to the upside.

So all signals are in a buy condition, which puts the Seven Sentinels in an "UNCONFIRMED" buy status, but NYMO is still well away from a 28 day trading high. I do not have a high confidence with this signal, especially with BPCOMPQ leaning negative, but there's still a chance that this market makes a surprise move higher in the short term.

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Updated 06-20-2011 at 07:03 PM by coolhand

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Comments

  1. coolhand's Avatar
    So far today it looks like my tentative read of the charts was accurate. Rally in progress.
  2. RealMoneyIssues's Avatar
    Sure, but for how long?

    I suspect (based on nothing) that it will die off this afternoon (profit takers) or pick up (low volume, big boys still on the sidelines)... Clear?
  3. coolhand's Avatar
    When it launches this strong, it's not usually a fade during the trading session. But it may not last long after today either. I'm thinking we should move higher again tomorrow leading up to the FOMC announcement. After that, who knows.

    Quote Originally Posted by RealMoneyIssues
    Sure, but for how long?

    I suspect (based on nothing) that it will die off this afternoon (profit takers) or pick up (low volume, big boys still on the sidelines)... Clear?

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