Coolhand's Market Analysis

CNBC was intently watching the major averages in the final hour of trade, and provided listeners with a play by play accounting of whether it looked like stocks would end the week in the green or make it seven straight weekly losses. In the end, stocks barely pulled up enough at the close to log their first weekly advance in seven weeks.

It appears a positive tone began in Europe, as Greece released an announcement that a new finance minister had been appointed. This coincided with news that German and French officials would support plans to address the country's fiscal problems.

Stocks had gapped up at the open, and then chopped around in a narrow range until mid-day. That's when weakness set it and stocks slowly dropped back down and bounced around the neutral line. It looked like the broader market was going to dive into the close, but stocks managed to rally a bit in the final half hour of trade to close mixed. The S&P 500 ended the day with a 0.3% gain, while the DOW and Nasdaq closed at 0.36% and -0.28% respectively.

Financials logged a gain of 0.9%, which was the best performing sector of the day. Interesting, given how much these issues have been shunned of late.Oil saw a 2% decline with crude now priced around $93 per barrel. I noticed today that a gallon of gas where I live is now selling for about 3.48 a gallon.

The June Consumer Sentiment Survey came in at 71.8 this morning, which was under estimates. May's Leading Indicators were up 0.8%, which was twice expectations.

OPEX is now behind us for June, so next week's trading should give us a good idea of where this market is headed in the short term. As a reminder, the FOMC makes a rate hike announcement Wednesday afternoon. I'm not sure what to expect for trading leading up to that announcement. I was looking for a rally, and maybe one will still materialize, but it's difficult to gauge. The charts seem to be subtly improving.



NAMO and NYMO may have turned as indicated by the 6 day EMA moving higher again. It's not much yet, but we'll know next week if it's telling us a move higher is underway. Both signals are flashing buys.



NAHL and NYHL flipped back to a buy as well.



TRIN and TRINQ remained in a buy and sell condition respectively.



Sign of life? BPCOMPQ managed to cross back above the lower bollinger band today. Technically, that flips it back to a buy, but it's a weak buy. Given that NAMO and NYMO appear to be turning, I'm optimistic that a rally may come next week. But the system remains on a sell until all technical conditions are met for an official buy signal. The problem though, is that an official buy signal would require NYMO to tag a 28 day trading high, and it's nowhere near it right now. This market could rally several percentage points before that happens, so if the system manages to align all seven signals to a buy condition, it might be worth taking a bullish stand on an unconfirmed buy signal. But let's set that aside and see what happens first.

See you Sunday evening when I post the tracker charts.