Coolhand's Market Analysis

It's not all that often I see huge shifts in stock and cash positions when assembling the weekly tracker charts, but we got a huge shift this coming week. Let's take a look.




The Top 50 went from an even 47% G fund position last week to a much more modest 21.12%. And the S fund ramped up from 34.86% to a very healthy 65.7%. The late rally last week seems to have convinced many TSPers that the next up-leg is in progress.




The Total Tracker charts show G fund holdings dropped by more than 10% going into the new week, while the S fund gained about 10% over the same period.

So the message board is leaning bullish in a big way. Total stock allocations are near 70%, which is a very high level for the Total Tracker. Is this a good thing?



I've assembled some historical data I've compiled from the tracker charts and selected those dates since last July where bullish levels shifted up or down at least 10%. There are 16 dates total. Red means the shift was wrong, while green means the shift was correct. In this chart the Top 50 was correct 50% of the time.

If I only count those dates where the shift was greater than 20%, then the Top 50 was correct 5 out of 6 times, with 24 Jan 2011 the only date they were wrong, and that was only by 0.54%. I'm measuring their collective success against the S fund here since that's been the fund of choice for quite some time.

I thought this was an interesting observation. It certainly gives me another reason to look for higher prices this week.