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Coolhand's Market Analysis

Cautiously Bullish

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by
coolhand
, 03-19-2011 at 09:37 AM (2218 Views)
Another big change in one set of charts and only a modest change in the other. Last week the Top 50 significantly reduced their collective stock exposure for the week of 14 March and we saw that move pay some dividends for them as the C fund was down -2.34%, the S fund -1.96%, and the I fund -3.41% for the week. And this was one of those relatively rare occasions where our sentiment survey got it wrong. But few were able to miss the decline through Wednesday and then catch the bounce the balance of the week. Still, there were many who did buy at lower prices, so if this market has indeed found a bottom they should benefit from the move.

Here's how the Top 50 are positioned going into the new week:

Friday 23rd Fund Update-2011-fund-allocation-~-top-50-chart-3-jpg
Friday 23rd Fund Update-2011-cash-stock-exp-~-top-50-chart-1-jpg

A good deal of G fund money found its way back into stocks here, and not surprisingly most of it is in the S fund. Cash levels are still a bit elevated for this group, but the percent increase in stock holdings is significant.

Friday 23rd Fund Update-total-fund-allocation-chart-3-jpg
Friday 23rd Fund Update-2011-cash-stock-total-exp-chart-1-jpg

The Total Tracker saw an increase in stock holdings with an equal decline in G fund holdings, although it was a much more modest change from the Top 50.

So it appears we are cautiously bullish after this week's decline. That's a good sign in my book and makes me feel a bit more comfortable with my 100% stock position. Our sentiment survey is on a buy again too. Can it be wrong 2 weeks in a row? I'd like to think not. We'll see how it plays out soon enough.

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Updated 03-19-2011 at 10:27 AM by coolhand

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Comments

  1. airlift's Avatar
    CH,
    Than you for your efforts, charts, and opinions. Your cautious outlook is prudent, in case there should be a surprise reversal. However, as you have well noted, QE2, low interest rates, our sentiment survey for this week, and other factors, might support a continued rally going forward.

    Even though we are yet to see the reaction of the Stock Markets, and though we don't know if diplomacy via the the U.N. resolution will work, or if this will unleash the dogs of war; the No Fly Zone resolution makes sense as a means to prevent Ghadafi from commiting genocide. I don't believe that inaction was the solution. The human onsaught promised by Ghadafi in re-capturing Benghazi and the rest of Lybia, is unacceptable. I would only hope that those Arab nations belonging to the coalition make clear that they are participating publicly and actively.

    Even as we are backing and participating in concert with the British, French, and Arab coalition, we will hopefully not be sending ground troops to Lybia. France has taken an overtly leading public position. The importance of this is, that the Arab an european participation takes some pressure off from the U.S. The enemies of the U.S. tend to blame us for all of the problems of Arab nations.
  2. coolhand's Avatar
    We all knew this weekend would probably be filled with "events". But I'm surprised how quickly Libya was attacked. The unity we're seeing among NATO allies is refreshing. The fact that France took the lead in the air campaign, awesome. And Middle Eastern powers appear on board with this (Iran excepted).

    Japan's nuclear woes are now hard to find in the news headlines with this development. Amazing how quickly the news shifts focus.

    Quote Originally Posted by airlift
    CH,
    Than you for your efforts, charts, and opinions. Your cautious outlook is prudent, in case there should be a surprise reversal. However, as you have well noted, QE2, low interest rates, our sentiment survey for this week, and other factors, might support a continued rally going forward.

    Even though we are yet to see the reaction of the Stock Markets, and though we don't know if diplomacy via the the U.N. resolution will work, or if this will unleash the dogs of war; the No Fly Zone resolution makes sense as a means to prevent Ghadafi from commiting genocide. I don't believe that inaction was the solution. The human onsaught promised by Ghadafi in re-capturing Benghazi and the rest of Lybia, is unacceptable. I would only hope that those Arab nations belonging to the coalition make clear that they are participating publicly and actively.

    Even as we are backing and participating in concert with the British, French, and Arab coalition, we will hopefully not be sending ground troops to Lybia. France has taken an overtly leading public position. The importance of this is, that the Arab an european participation takes some pressure off from the U.S. The enemies of the U.S. tend to blame us for all of the problems of Arab nations.

S&P500 (C Fund) (delayed)

(Stockcharts.com Real-time) 		DWCPF (S Fund) (delayed)

(Stockcharts.com Real-time) 		EFA (I Fund) (delayed)

(Stockcharts.com Real-time) 		BND (F Fund) (delayed)

(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
Yahoo Finance Realtime TSP Fund Tracking Index Quotes