Coolhand's Market Analysis

What does a Top 50 tracker chart look like in a market that moves primarily in one direction?




It looks a lot like this one does. No fear. Not as long as the Bernanke Put remains a factor. It doesn't get much more bullish than this. With one exception, every member in the Top 50 is 100% stocks, and of those the majority are in the S fund.




The Total Tracker also shows a spike in bullishness as stock allocations rose 15.72%. Overall cash levels are now just 29% (that's the G fund). There is now 666 members represented in these charts and to see this much overall stock exposure suggests we are more bullish than our sentiment survey seems to indicate. Currently our survey is 44% bulls to 42% bears. That keeps it on a buy for the seventh straight week. No doubt our 2 IFT limit influences the correlation between sentiment and actual market position. In other words, many TSPers are looking further than one week out, and it appears we think this market is headed higher over the coming weeks.

Tomorrow being Monday, it should be noted that the first trading day of the week has been very bullish for months. If that's the case again tomorrow and we have a moderately green close, I would not be surprised if the Seven Sentinels issue a confirmed buy signal. That's just my hunch and of course the market will have the last word on that.