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Big reversal day

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Stocks showed a lot of spunk on Wednesday as an early 260-point loss in the Dow reversed on a dime in late morning trading and headed up for the rest of the day. The 53-point gain wasn't all that impressive, but it was more than 300-points from the low to the close. It appears that oil was the culprit again.

Daily TSP Funds Return

The price of oil was heading down early before what appeared to be a weak inventory report (weak meaning inventories were rising, which is usually bearish for oil), was actually better than the prior day's weak report and it triggered some buying. How to interpret that I don't know but apparently investors saw it as a reason to buy oil and stocks.



The SPY (S&P 500 Index / C-Fund) filled that partially open gap (green) below the 20-day EMA yesterday before the reversal. There is still another open gap (red) and the overhead resistance is still in play. Perhaps we are in for a trading range between the 2016 highs and lows. Until one of those breaks we could just see a lot volatile action that would only help the most nimble traders.




The Dow Completion Index (small caps / S-Fund) is at the top of the parallel trading range with two open gaps below. Can it breakout without filling those gaps first?




The Transportation Index closed with a loss but well off the steep morning losses. It bounced nicely off of the support from the 20-day EMA, and closed back above the 50-day EMA. Despite the loss, that's actually more like bull market action. Interesting.





The EFA (EAFE Index / I-fund) nearly filled one of its open gaps before rebounding. It did close with a loss and this chart formation isn't anything to get excited about yet.





The AGG (bonds / F-fund) gave up some big early gains as they reversed down when stocks reversed higher. It is still within the rising trading channel so technically this chart still looks bullish for bonds.




Administrative note regarding late entries into the AutoTracker:


If not abused, I will give 7+ hours after the IFT deadline to input your IFT into the AutoTracker before I process the share prices, as long as it is noted on the comments line, and until that point I am able to make the change for you fairly easily.

Once the share prices are processed after about 7:30 PM ET it becomes a manual process that can take 10 to 15 minutes to fix just one account because of manual database tables updates and calculations that have to be made.

Recently, when a premium service makes an IFT there is a slew of members who forget to enter their IFT into the AutoTracker well after that extra deadline. Unfortunately there's no way I have time to make all of those changes.

In the past I have been a little lenient and have given premium members an extra 24 hours but in reality, or officially, it was just an extra benefit for those who paid for the "Plus" subscription (as you can read here). Plus was originally set up as a supplemental service to the other premium services. Anyway, if there were only 1 or 2 accounts that needed updating I did it anyway. Unfortunately way too many people are requesting changes after 7:30 PM and into the next day so I have to go back to that 7 hour window.So please think tsp.gov and then AutoTracker when making an IFT. We do have free spreadsheets available to download so you can track your own return more accurately when you do forget. Thanks, and sorry about that.


Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php

Thanks for reading. We'll see you back here tomorrow.


Tom Crowley



Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php

The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.

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Comments

  1. Cactus's Avatar
    Wow, I find 7+ hours to be more than generous. I guess I have a hard time understanding how someone can forget about updating their AT entry when they execute an IFT. For me it's one operation so I do one right after the other. A bigger issue would be people who can execute an IFT from work but can't log on to the AT there to record that IFT. That happened to me once. A 7+ hour grace period would give me the opportunity to do it when I get home -- if I remember. Thanks, Tom.
  2. tsptalk's Avatar
    Or an email to me and I could enter it. I know to some it may sound like an unreasonable rule since they just want to get their allocation corrected, but it just too laborious the way it is set up now, particularly when more than a couple make the request on the same day, and that has been the pattern when a premium service makes an IFT.

    But even if I automated it and made it easier to make the changes, how fair is it when people see the results and then make the IFT on the AT afterward?

    The spreadsheets are a nice alternative if someone screwed up their AT account. Plus, I'm lazy and don't like to do extra work.

S&P500 (C Fund) (delayed)

(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
DWCPF (S Fund) (delayed)

(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
EFA (I Fund) (delayed)

(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
BND (F Fund) (delayed)

(Stockcharts.com Real-time)

Yahoo Finance Realtime TSP Fund Tracking Index Quotes