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TSP Talk Weekly Wrap Up

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Despite the big rally after the Fed rate hike on Wednesday, the declining price of oil took center stage on Thursday and investors quickly turned to selling. The selling continued over night, causing a gap down at Friday's open, and closed at the lows putting the S&P 500 in negative territory for the week.




The chart below shows the eerie similarity between recent action and that prior to the August correction. Seasonality is on the market's side but its something to keep in mind as, another correction is rare, but not impossible given the set up.




Here are the weekly, monthly, and annual TSP fund returns for the week ending December 18th:




The 200-day EMA did not hold as support as it did in November during Friday's selling of the SPY (S&P 500 / C-fund). A small gap was opened as the index gapped down at Friday's open. There is long-term rising support below current levels if needed going into next week. The C-fund was down 0.31% for the week.




The Dow Completion Index (S-fund) had been stuck in a down trend trading channel for December but the Fed rally put it up back above the resistance line. That resistance line could become a support line at current prices are approaching. The S-fund was down 0.34% this week.




Oil has pulled back slightly this week but has created another bear flag in the process. This bear flag looks dangerous with the November bear flag breaking down and this new one has possible resistance above.





EFA (EAFE Index / I-fund) looks similar to the small caps but did finally close that open gap from October. The I-fund led the TSP funds this week with a gain 0.81% coming off the bottom of its trading channel.




AGG (Bonds / F-fund) has itself in another bear flag but how it gets out of it will depend on how stocks carry on from here. The F-fund was down 0.35% this week.




Good luck and thanks for reading. We will be back here next week with another TSP Wrap Up. You can read our daily market commentary at the Market Comments page. If you need more help deciding what to do with your account, perhaps one of our Premium Services can help.


Tommy Crowley
www.tsptalk.com
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The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or are commendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.

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Updated 01-02-2016 at 03:06 PM by TommyIV

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TSP Talk Weekly Wrap Ups

Comments

  1. esatter's Avatar
    Why are the TSP returns on your web page different than those on the actual TSP webpage

    Month L Income L 2020 L 2030 L 2040 L 2050 G Fund F Fund C Fund S Fund I Fund
    2014
    Dec (0.04%) (0.50%) (0.67%) (0.76%) (0.94%) 0.18% 0.21% (0.24%) 0.99% (4.13%)
    2015
    Jan (0.08%) (0.58%) (0.83%) (1.02%) (1.18%) 0.18% 2.13% (2.99%) (1.85%) 1.19%
    Feb 1.19% 2.95% 3.80% 4.39% 4.99% 0.13% (0.91%) 5.75% 6.05% 5.97%
    Mar (0.07%) (0.44%) (0.58%) (0.64%) (0.76%) 0.16% 0.47% (1.57%) 1.24% (1.43%)
    Apr 0.37% 0.81% 0.95% 1.00% 1.16% 0.15% (0.28%) 0.96% (1.50%) 4.11%
    May 0.30% 0.50% 0.62% 0.72% 0.78% 0.17% (0.26%) 1.29% 1.84% (0.42%)
    Jun (0.33%) (0.97%) (1.28%) (1.46%) (1.66%) 0.17% (1.07%) (1.93%) (0.71%) (2.80%)
    Jul 0.55% 1.03% 1.22% 1.33% 1.46% 0.19% 0.74% 2.10% (0.12%) 2.08%
    Aug (1.10%) (3.06%) (4.04%) (4.69%) (5.37%) 0.18% (0.11%) (6.03%) (5.80%) (7.36%)
    Sep (0.51%) (1.67%) (2.26%) (2.67%) (3.09%) 0.18% 0.75% (2.47%) (4.80%) (5.02%)
    Oct 1.64% 3.72% 4.88% 5.58% 6.31% 0.17% 0.02% 8.45% 5.61% 7.07%
    Nov 0.17% 0.17% 0.20% 0.24% 0.24% 0.17% (0.24%) 0.31% 1.75% (0.86%)
    YTD 2.13% 2.29% 2.39% 2.37% 2.34% 1.86% 1.21% 3.08% 1.03% 1.55%
    Last 12 mo 2.09% 1.78% 1.70% 1.60% 1.38% 2.05% 1.42% 2.83% 2.03% (2.64%)
  2. TommyIV's Avatar
    The year to date return they give you on the monthly return page at TSP.gov doesn't include December and is giving the returns up to November 30th for the year. You can check it out by comparing the returns on November 30th 2015 at TSP Talk AutoTracker with the ytd returns on the TSP monthly return page.

S&P 500 (C Fund)
S&P 500 INDEX,RTH (^GSPC)
DWCPF (S Fund)
Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index (^DWCPF)
EFA (I Fund)
iShares MSCI EAFE Index (EFA)
AGG (F Fund)
iShares Lehman Aggregate Bond (AGG)