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Crash?

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Stocks cracked on Friday with more 2% and 3% declines in the indices. The Dow lost 531-points on the day. Clearly fear and emotions are high and this remains a dangerous market, but a snap back rally is likely on the horizon. The question will be whether the market bottoms or if the rallies get sold quickly.

Daily TSP Funds Return

Small caps outperformed losing "just" 1.95% while the C-fund was hit hardest. Bonds were up.

I apologize for this, but I am still out of town without my normal equipment and it's just too difficult to do a normal report. It takes so much longer for every step, so I have to make this brief. Of course the market isn't cooperating, but it's just as well. Technical analysis kind of gets thrown out the window when emotions are this high.

The SPY (S&P 500 / C-fund) clearly broke down on huge volume. The losses were steep and it basically took away all of 2015's gains and more. So, as we talked about before, it looks as if the Transportation Index did set the table for the rest of the market when it broke months ago.


Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk


The weekly chart of the S&P 500 repeated the October breakdown. The question is, will it snap back like it did then, or is the bull market finally coming to an end?


Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk


The
VIX shows the fear that is out there right now. It looks bad, but as you'll see below in the longer-term chart, it can get worse.


Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk



Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk


The
AGG (bonds / F-fund) was up on Friday and is now testing overhead resistance.


Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk



Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php

Thanks for reading, and thanks for your patience while I'm away. I'll be back in my office on Tuesday morning. We'll see you back here tomorrow.

Tom Crowley


Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php

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Comments

  1. weatherweenie's Avatar
    Did the commentary get updated for Monday's action?
  2. tsptalk's Avatar
    Thanks, ww. I forgot to pull the trigger last night.

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