TSP Talk Blog

Stocks saw some early selling after a positive open yesterday, but for the first time in several days the bulls finally pulled the trigger and started buying away, and it may have turned into a Turnaround Tuesday. The Dow gained 190-points and saw gains over 1% across the board. The big surprise was the nearly 3% gain in the beaten down Dow Transportation Index.

Today is day #2 of July's FOMC meeting and I expect we'll get the policy statement announced around noon ET (correction 2 PM ET). It could be a market mover as everyone continues to look for any information as to when interest rate hikes may be coming.

Daily TSP Funds Return More returns

The S-fund had a nice day but it still not quite up there with the returns of the C-fund. The I-fund has been getting a bit of break on the price the last couple of days and this 0.10% gain was a big payback - but perhaps overdone. Bonds were down.

China's Shanghai Index was down 1.68% on Tuesday. Bad, but at least it didn't free-fall again like on Monday.

The SPY (S&P500 / C-fund) rallied 1.2% right up to the 20 and 50-day EMA's. It's not uncommon to see a rally stall there, but the test comes the following day to see if investors are still willing to buy, so technically, this chart is not out of trouble yet, but that's a good start.


Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk

The Dow Completion Index (S-fund) did a nice reversal job not only filling the small gap, but busting trough the top of the gap and back above the 200-day EMA. Again, good start but no guarantees yet.


Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk

The Dow Transportation Index had a huge day gaining nearly 3%. But here it is again at the descending resistance line and the 50-day EMA where bear market rallies tend to die. If it can breakout, then the 200-day EMA is 200+ points away and would be the next target.


Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk

The EFA (EAFE index / I-fund) was up 1.26% so that 0.10% gain in the I-fund yesterday is a little suspicious. I'm not sure if we owed the I-fund that much, or if tomorrow we'll see the it get some payback. There are still gaps all over and it is below the 50-day EMA so technically there is still some issues here.


Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk

The AGG (bonds / F-fund) was down and is trying to hold and find support at the old resistance line.


Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk


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Thanks for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.

Tom Crowley


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