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Trouble in Greece - again

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The Dow gained 56-points on Friday but the indices were mixed at best with the S&P 500 and small caps down slightly, the Nasdaq down fairly sharply, as were the international stocks. So overall it was more of a negative day, and looking at the futures on Sunday night, there could be more red numbers coming as the debt deal in Greece remains in jeopardy. The headlines are getting more negative.

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The I-fund lagged with the dollar up and European stocks remaining wobbly. And bonds were down sharply but with stock futures down sharply on Sunday night, the bond futures are actually rallying nicely.

Emotional Monday morning gap openings can be hard to trust and gaps tend to get filled quickly, particularly negative gaps on a Monday morning. To give you a picture of what it looks like now (before the open), here's the chart of the S&P 500 futures a little after the open on Sunday night. They were down 1.53%. Who knows how it will open, but one problem is the support line that was broken, could act as resistance on any attempt to fill the open gap.




So, all that said, the charts I show below don't mean a heck of a lot. There could be an extra negative bar on the index charts, and positive ones on the bond chart. I'll make the analysis quick and tomorrow we'll have a better idea of how investors reacted.

One more thing, China's Shanghai Index lost yet another 7.4% on Friday
and that's a decline of about 20% in the last two weeks. We're all looking at Greece but believe me, if this gets any worse in China it will start taking over the top headlines.


The SPY (S&P500 / C-fund) has pulled back and closed above the 50-day EMA. BUT, we know it may not open above the 50-day EMA so let's just see how it plays out before speculating.


Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk


The weekly chart of the S&P 500 is still above the long-term rising support line, BUT it could easily open below it on Monday.


Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk


The
Dow Completion Index (S-fund) fell through a couple of support levels last week, and the futures indicate that it could be testing the bottom of the rising trading channel some time today.


Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com
, analysis by TSP Talk


The
EFA (EAFE index / I-fund) filled the gap down near 65.60 but if a deal is not done in Greece, who knows how long it can go? And if a deal is reached, how big of a rebound rally will we see?


Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com
, analysis by TSP Talk


The
dollar should gap open higher on Monday. As we talked about last week, we saw a couple of gaps turn into bull flags and turn into short-term spikes higher in the dollar. It looks strong but watch that descending resistance line near 25.30.


Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk


Here is the seasonality chart surrounding Independence Day. Today would be day -4. It looks quite green, but we know that may not be the case today - at least at the open.


Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com, analysis by TSP Talk

T
he AGG (bonds / F-fund) is testing the recent lows but the bond futures are up sharply on Sunday night so for now it looks like the test of the lows will hold for another day.


Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk



Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php

Thanks for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.


Tom Crowley


Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php

The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.

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Comments

  1. prudence's Avatar
    Hi everyone, I have my money in the I and S fund. With the financial situation occurring in Greece, should I pull my money out. I heard when a person moves his or her money they lose a lot of money.

    Thanks
  2. tsptalk's Avatar
    Hi prudence.

    This probably isn't the best place to ask a question like that. We have a "Questions' area that will get more views and responses...

    http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/questions/

    You may want to re-ask there by creating a new thread. (http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/newthread....newthread&f=19)

    To answer your second comment, you don't lose move "because" you move your money. The market determines who loses money.

    Tom
  3. prudence's Avatar
    Sorry about that and thank you for directing to the correct forum.

S&P500 (C Fund) (delayed)

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EFA (I Fund) (delayed)

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