TSP Talk Blog

Stocks were mixed on Thursday with the Dow gaining a modest 56-points while small caps ended the day with a small loss. It may be the calm before earnings season gets rolling, although the 0.28% loss in bonds was a bit of a shake-up.

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The I-fund posted a small gain despite a rally in the dollar and the large cap C-fund led the way with a 0.45% gain.

I was traveling all day on Thursday so I had to to make this a little brief.

The S&P 500 (C-fund) may have broken that bearish pattern we have been watching - at least Thursday's action would have us believe that. Peak #4 in January led to a sharp decline and that was what I though could be in store should the pattern continue, but instead the S&P 500 mustered up enough strength to make a higher high over that second peak #4. It's not out of the woods yet, but any more upside action today and I think we will be able to put the comparison aside.


Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk

The Wilshire 4500 (S-fund) was down slightly on Thursday but posted a pretty good positive reversal day.


Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk

The EFA (EAFE Index / I-fund) was up slightly and that was a show of strength considering the dollar also had a very good day.


Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk

The dollar shot up over 1% and broke the short-term downtrend on Thursday, and most likely put an end the the pullback that started in March and held up at the 50-day EMA on Monday.


Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk

The AGG (Bonds / F-fund) broke below its rising trading channel and is about to test its 20-day EMA. This is not a deal breaker for bonds yet, but it is certainly a but of a warning sign.


Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk

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Thanks for reading! Have a great weekend!

Tom Crowley


Posted daily at TSP Talk Market Commentary

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