TSP Talk Blog

Stocks opened higher but closed mixed as the bigger companies that are more impacted by a stronger dollar and lower oil prices, were down modestly, while small caps had a good day. The Dow lost 28-points, but the S-fund had a nice day gaining 0.56%, and the Transports gain over 1%.

Daily TSP Funds Return More returns

The I-fund was flat, which may be generous since the dollar was up about 1% yesterday. The F-fund gained 0.08%.

The SPY (S&P 500 / C-fund) has closed below the 50-day EMA for 2 days now, and for those who have been around a while, you know we don't confirm the breakdown until we get at least 3 to 5 closes below it. There is an open gap near 207.50 and that should be a draw for the SPY, but it will have to get above the 50-day EMA to fill it. The rising support line from the October low is coming into play, and it should be fairly strong. Otherwise, the 200-day EMA will be in play. The big caps stocks are being negatively impact by the strength in the dollar which was up over 1% again yesterday.


Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk

The Wilshire 4500 (S-fund) had a very nice day compared to it's big siblings. It gained 0.54% after bouncing off of the 50-day EMA. It is still under the short-term descending resistance line so that will be the battle - the 50-day EMA vs. the short-term resistance line. If the dollar remains strong, the S-fund should be least negatively impacted of the three TSP stock funds.


Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk

Not surprisingly, the small caps of the Russell 2000 also did well, and it nearly filled the gap (red) opened on Tuesday. It didn't quite fill the open gap below the 50-day EMA (blue), and that would have been a nice clean area to bottom. Still being open, there's always that possibility of it wanting to pullback and get filled.


Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk

The Dow Transportation Index led the way on Wednesday with a solid 1.12% gain. It is still under the short-term descending resistance line and the 50-day EMA, so we don't want to be too premature in calling the bottom here, but any upside action today would go a long way for the bulls.


Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk

The EFA (EAFE Index / I-fund) posted a small gain but is still smarting from the recent smack down. It is back below the 50 and 200-day EMA, but I would expect the index to try to fill the open gap which would push it back above those EMAs.


Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk

The AGG (Bonds / F-fund) rallied yesterday. The current trend is still down, but it is trying to show some life. I would put this in the neutral to bearish camp for the F-fund.


Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk


Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the Sentiment Survey Results and the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php

Thanks for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.

Tom Crowley


Posted daily at TSP Talk Market Commentary

The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.