TSP Talk Blog

Stocks bounced back on Monday, but there wasn't a whole lot of enthusiasm from the bulls and while the Dow did gain 139-points, the broader indices gained less than a half of a percent after Friday's big sell-off. It's a start, but the fade into the close left us wondering why the dip buyers stopped buying into the close. Oil moved back above $50 a barrel and that helped.

Daily TSP Funds Return More returns

The I-fund lagged as the TSP had to give some back from Friday's excessive price. Bonds rebounded as the AGG tries to fill an open gap.

The SPY (S&P 500 / C-fund) did a good job of holding above the key support area we have been watching, but the action wasn't all that impressive with Friday's losses being 3 to 4 times greater.


Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk

The Wilshire 4500 (S-fund) had a good day despite lagging the larger indices. I just noticed that the prior two highs made a perfect parallel channel with the prior two lows. That's not a great sign if the small caps want to test the bottom of that channel again since it's only about 1/3 there.


Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk

The market leader Dow Transportation Index is trying to find support after falling below the 50-day EMA on Friday. There's one strong support line crossing an old resistance line near the yesterday's lows of about 8900.


Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk

TheEFA (EAFE Index / I-fund) rebounded despite the TSP having to give it a negative price yesterday, since Friday's price was too high. I don't usually look at Fibonacci retracements, but I like to find reasons why something finds support or resistance in specific areas. The EFA seems to be finding support at the 23.6% retracement level, a common number for Fibonacci retracements. I used a different charting software package to get the them, which is why the chart looks different today.



On Friday oil fell below $50 a barrel and on Monday it bounced back above it. Is the correlation be $50 and stocks going up or down going to be that easy?


Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk

The AGG (Bonds / F-fund) rebounded after Friday's sell off. There is an open gap that may act like a magnet, but once that is filled, the old support line could act as resistance, as should the 50-day EMA.


Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk


Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the Sentiment Survey Results and the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php

Thanks for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.

Tom Crowley


Posted daily at TSP Talk Market Commentary

The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.