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JTH

Charting: Getting Testy

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Good evening

Trading day 19, the last day of February, and the stats aren't great (but not horrible)


  • SPX, 50% winning ratio with -.20% average returns
  • R2K, 40% winning ratio with -.28% average returns
  • AGG, 64% winning ratio with .08% average returns

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AGG, 30-min


  • Traveling up, price was rejected at 50% of the AB wave at C (typical)
  • The blue box is an area with key price levels for both buyers & sellers
  • Look for a bounce within the yellow circle (an area with a rising trendline at 25% of the AB wave
  • Past 8 days has seen a great deal of volatility, several large price swings, if equities drop, then I expect to fill the 111.58 gap quickly

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SPX, 30-min


  • Prices held up well today, 2103 is an area of interest for me
  • If the 1-3 trendline gets breached, I'll look for a test of 2096
  • If 2096 gets breached, I'll look for a test of the 2-4 trendline, somewhere in the 2070 area

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W4500, 30-min


  • Prices held up well today, 1094 is an area of interest for me
  • If 1094 gets breached, I'll look for a test of 1088, then 1077
  • Within the yellow box, Impressive consolidation of the MACD

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Transports, 30-min


  • Weakest of the major indexes I track
  • The once awesome 5-6 trendline has been breached for a 2nd time
  • The 3-4 trendline has been breached (look for a rejection of this line on the way back up)
  • Today, we tested the 1-2 trendline and it held, will it hold tomorrow?

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NASDAQ 100, 30-min


  • Strongest of the indexes I track (love the tight consolidation)
  • Today, we tested the 3-4 trendline and it held, will it hold tomorrow?
  • If the 3-4 trendline gets breached, then I'd like to see a test of the 1-2 trendline

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Looking for character changes, I tend to watch the futures throughout the evening and all the way up till the open, the past 3 days have shown some subtle changes. While the month of February was relatively stable, I wouldn't be surprised to see some induced volatility as we head into the 1st week of March.

Take care…Jason




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Chart Patterns

Comments

  1. Canitreen's Avatar
    Thanks for the insights. Its nice to have more analysis.
  2. JTH's Avatar
    Thanks!
  3. MrJohnRoss's Avatar
    Nice analysis and chart work Jason. Looks like we're both thinking the same thing here. Nice to see confirmation.
  4. JTH's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by MrJohnRoss
    Nice analysis and chart work Jason. Looks like we're both thinking the same thing here. Nice to see confirmation.
    Yea we need a fire-sale, not finding too many ETFs that look like a good value and I don't want to go short.
  5. kb9nvh's Avatar
    So ...to me this looks like jumping into F as we head into march might be a good move for a guy in G right now?

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