TSP Talk Blog

Stocks were mixed on Wednesday with the Dow, S&P 500, and small caps being virtually flat, the Nasdaq and Transports were up, while the I-fund lost ground. We saw buyers step up during afternoon trading to erase some earlier losses.

After the close a rumor of a debt deal for Greece surfaced and we saw stock futures spike higher, but that quickly faded after it was learned that it was talked about, but not a done deal yet.

Daily TSP Funds Return More returns

The I-fund lagged badly as stocks rallied late on Wednesday and the dollar was up. The late rally should translate into some added fair value in Thursday's price, plus that Greece debt rumor sent the dollar lower after hours and that could also help the I-fund if it holds.

The price of oil was down and moved below $50 a barrel, an area we thought could be key for the stock market. That was one of the reasons that the Dow and S&P 500 lagged the tech-heavy Nasdaq, which had a solid day.

The SPY (S&P 500 / C-fund) was flat but technically it is holding onto some key levels. The wedge breakout has now held for 5 straight days, and the last two day's closes also looks like a potential triple top breakout.


Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk

The Wilshire 4500 (S-fund) was down slightly yesterday but it is also hanging above the old resistance line. Certainly no authority in this breakout, but it's on the right side of resistance line at the moment.


Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk

The Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) followed the S&P 500 and broke above the descending resistance line of the wedge formation, which actually isn't much of a wedge on the QQQ.


Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk

The Russell 2000 has been lagging recently but it may be creating a bull flag, and after testing the 20-day EMA successfully, it looks like it's time to make its move, or else the bears will eagerly be eating at it again.


Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk

The EFA (EAFE Index / I-fund) has created a second bull flag, and after the first one broke out, and that gives some hope for a second breakout. Of course the big problem here is getting back above the 200-day EMA. In a bear market, which the EFA / I-fund have been in, that's usually not an easy task.


Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk

The dollar moved higher yesterday and that put pressure on the I-fund.



As I mentioned above, after hours yesterday the dollar fell taking back nearly all of the daily gains, so how this Greek debt deal rumor will be digested today will make a big difference to Thursday's closing price of the I-fund.

The AGG (Bonds / F-fund) lost ground again, despite the F-fund giving the TSP a 0.01% gain yesterday. The 50-day EMA is about to be tested and then there's a double layer of support near 110 and change.


Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk

Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the Sentiment Survey Results and the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php

Thanks for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.

Tom Crowley


Posted daily at TSP Talk Market Commentary

The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.