TSP Talk Blog

Stocks continued their holiday buoyancy on Friday picking up modest gains with the Dow adding 23.50 points, and for the week the C, S, and I funds gained 0.90%, 1.38%, and 0.43% respectively.

Daily TSP Funds Return More returns

If there was a hiccup, it was that we saw some sellers jump in during the last part of the trading day on both Friday and Wednesday.


Volume was very light and as we've said before, light volume trading days can see the indices get pushed around a bit. This may be a case of money managers trying to quietly dump losing positions so they are not showing on their 2014 annual reports.

The SPY (S&P 500 / C-fund) is hanging above the neckline of our inverted head and shoulder pattern. Resistance, once broken, can act as support, but as we saw earlier this month, if that support is broken, you cannot ignore it.


Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk

The Wilshire 4500 (S-fund) led the way on Friday and last week as the small cap January affect may be coming into play. We've seen these type of slow inclines (since the 2 big up days) all year and they can last a lot longer than we might expect.


Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk

The EFA (EAFE Index / I-fund) has rallied back up to its 50-day EMA. In a bear market we'd expect this to act as resistance, but the real resistance and test of this bear market may be the 200-day EMA and the descending resistance line (red).


Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk

Today is trading day number +2 on the Christmas Day Performance Chart so seasonality remains strong this week.


Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com, analysis by TSP Talk

The AGG (Bonds / F-fund) is still trading in a tight range and the narrowing pennant formation is going to have to give this week. The intermediate-trend is up with the rising support holding for 4-months now. But if the 50-day EMA breaks, it could be bad new for bonds.


Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk


AutoTracker: Just a reminder that if you want to get on the 2015 AutoTracker to start the new year, make sure to login to the AutoTracker by December 31 so we know you're still around. If you're new to the AutoTracker, use the instructions on this page to get started.

Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the Sentiment Survey Results and the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php

Thanks for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.

Tom Crowley


Posted daily at TSP Talk Market Commentary

The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.