TSP Talk Blog

Stocks opened sharply higher on Monday morning, but the sellers were right there to resume the selling we saw on Friday. The bears have been absent for many weeks, but they certainly have not shied away over the last week. The Dow ended the day down 100-points after being up over 100 at the open.

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The S-fund lost nearly 1% and the I-fund shed 1.47%. Even bonds could not close in positive territory. Bad day for the TSP'ers in stocks or bonds.

The SPY (S&P 500 / C-fund) continued to decline and now the right shoulder of this inverted head and shoulders it is close to the same size of left shoulder decline we saw in July / August, but as I mentioned before, head and shoulders patterns are always that neat.


Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk

The Wilshire 4500 (S-fund) fell another 0.95% on Monday down to the 200-day EMA where it found some temporary support. This would be a nice clean place for it to hold, but it's not always that convenient for market timers.


Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk

The Transports were actually up yesterday after it came back from an early break of the 50-day EMA. Key spot here.


Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk

The EFA (EAFE Index / I-fund) has been falling precipitously this month and not looking too good. We know stocks don't go straight down forever but trying to catch a falling knife can be dangerous. There is support at the October lows, but this is a downtrend in a bear market so you never know how much damage can be done, but a snap back rally is probably in the cards soon.


Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk

The AGG (Bonds / F-fund) was down yesterday and even a weak stock market couldn't give bonds a gain yesterday. So we're looking at the possibility of Friday's breakout being a fake out, as we talked about yesterday.


Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk

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Thanks for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.

Tom Crowley


Posted daily at TSP Talk Market Commentary

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