TSP Talk Blog

Stocks moved modestly higher yesterday making it four positive days in a row since last week's low. The Dow gained 40-points after a positive ADP payroll report giving investors some optimism in front of the jobs report this Friday. There is another important Initial Jobless Claims this morning so we'll see if that optimism sticks.

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The dollar was up so the I-fund lagged, while bonds were down and the intermediate-term bonds are down testing key support again.

The SPY (S&P 500 / C-fund) pushed to a second consecutive closing high yesterday and it was good to see the day's low held at the break out level. The PMO indicator moved above its 10 day average, which is positive. Not much to not like here unless this turns into a false breakout, which is possible, but until then, this is a new high in a bull market.


Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk

The Dow almost made a new high yesterday, and this cup and handle formation is generally bullish. There may be some resistance here but cup and handles tend to breakout.


Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk

The Transportation Index did break out of a cup and handle formation. Again, this is normally a bullish formation and with this being the market leader, a good sign for the followers.


Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk

The Nasdaq is lagging but the recent formation looks a lot like the rebound off the lows in early February which eventually ran up to new highs.


Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk


Bonds are still in their trading ranges but the 7 to 10 year EFT is now pushing against the lower end of its range threatening to break down. Still waiting on something to happen here. The last three tests held. Can it survive a fourth?


Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk


The March jobs report is due out on Friday. Estimates are looking for a gain of 195,000 jobs, with an unemployment rate of 6.6%. We have our monthly jobs report contest going on right now in the forum. More info: Guess the Jobs Report Contest Mar'14

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Thanks for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.

Tom Crowley


Posted daily at TSP Talk Market Commentary

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