Bullitt

Yep, all eyes on the Dollar, and the jury says it's going lower. It's not a good thing to read about a declining dollar in your local newspaper. The demise of our currency almost seems like too sure a thing to me but if it goes lower I'm hoping my UNG purchases begin to give me some kind of inflation hedge. Not that I want high gas prices, but you've gotta do what you've gotta do...

From a bullish standpoint, I'd like to see a good 20% drop to wipe out the players who bought the breakout on margin and get the interest level up in those 3x Bear funds once again. Things have gone from very doom and gloomish to copasetic since May. It seems to me that the bears have just gone into hibernation while the regular overly bullish cronies (Mutual Funds) continue sit at the bar and throw 'em back. I've even noticed a few bloggers who've continually maintained a bearish stance in 2009 haven't been posting as much in cyberspace lately.

That brings me to an interesting point. We all know that 'buy and hold' is dead (allegedly) because of the past market crash and the fact that the market hasn't gone anywhere in the past 10 years, but here's a spin: If somebody held during the drop because they got caught up in the bullish hoopla of 2006-2007, how is that any different from somebody who got caught up in the bearish hoopla from 2008-2009 and missed one of the fastest run-ups in history? What I'm saying is, if one is looking to trade the markets, one needs to stay away from any bias. It's pretty easy to see where most bloggers on the internet stand just by their words. We all know who I'm talking about here- the ones who day after day after day after day after day post the BKX index or talk about Bernanke's grand experiment or talk about GM being bankrupt or talk about this bull taking us to 1300 by 2010. I didn't even mention those guys you see on TV only when a bank reports a loss or when an index is up 3% on the day.

Taking Profits: Does anyone besides Paulson and Co. hedge fund have any profits this year to take? I've never been able to figure this quote out, yet it's always a good excuse for a selloff. "traders take profits and lead index down .5% on the day". Most of us are looking to get back some of those contributions we lost in the crash, not to make actual 'real profits' .

Volume: I think too many bears are using the volume as an excuse that this is/was a suckers rally. Volume is lower compared to the panic lows in March, but compared to last year at this time, we're trading double. I'm sure that fact that many stocks have been decimated to penny status adds volume though too. Maybe somebody has some comments on volume as a longer term (6-12 months) indicator.

Those that jumped out of the market because their indicators said 'bail!', should stick with their system until it tells them it's safe again to buy. After all, that's what a system is for; to keep the emotion out of the game.

Within the TSP, I have no intentions of riding the next C Wave, or whatever those elliot wave guys are calling for, down. I just can't afford to let myself get fooled again. Outside of TSP world, I do have one mutual fund which I significantly cut down the monthly contribution to this past week. In other words, I'm planning on using this rally to do some redemptions on both fronts.

Thanks for reading. Take Care.