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  1. US dollar lifting markets

    It appears that the US dollar is lifting the market, by declining. A falling US dollar re-prices commodities in the indexes higher, and is the so called wealth effect. Today, viewed on the chart below, on the US dollar index bullish fund (UUP), we see a break of the 200 sma, and technically a break of the 200 ema yesterday. The price percentage oscillator (PPO) shows that there is still room to roam lower. Further, the RSI is not oversold in the 30 area as in previous occurrences, as we see ...
  2. Sentiment Survey Results...

    TSP Talk Sentiment Survey results for the week of 4/30/12- 5/0412

    : The TSP Talk Sentiment Survey came in at 52% bulls, 36% bears, for a bulls to bears ratio of 1.44 to 1. That is a neutral reading in a bull market which means the system will remain 100% S fund for the week of 4/30/12 -5/04/12.

    Bull market rules have been in affect since the week of 1/09/12:

    See latest survey results

    To discuss or comment on the Sentiment Survey, ...
  3. TSP's three amigos

    This chart suggests that the I fund was the leader before the recession. Since 2009 the international fund started out strong, but the small caps (S fund) overtook and is the clear winner. Lately the I fund is slipping below the large caps (C fund). The C fund always underperforms, and IMO is due in part to institutions raiding it in a trading process I call skimming, but we will address that later.

    Thinking of putting everything in the G-three-_amigos-png
  4. Was that the pullback?


    Despite some weak economic data, Apple's earnings seemed to be enough to give stocks a boost yesterday as it helped the Nasdaq to a gain of 2.3%, while the S&P added 1.4%. Apple is not in the Dow and it gained 89-points or "just" 0.07%.

    For the TSP,
    the C-fund gained 1.38% yesterday, the S-fund was up 1.77%, the I-fund ...

    Updated 04-26-2012 at 10:20 AM by tsptalk (share prices corrected)

    Daily Market Commentary
  5. Reversal worked, then Apple


    We saw steep losses in stocks on Monday but as we mentioned yesterday, despite the losses, there was an decent intraday reversal and the indices closed near the day's highs that day. Reversals such as that tend to create a follow though day, which is what we got on Tuesday. The Dow finished off its highs, but did gain 74-points on the day.

    For the TSP, the
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S&P 500 (C Fund)
DWCPF (S Fund)
Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index (^DWCPF)
EFA (I Fund)
iShares MSCI EAFE Index (EFA)
AGG (F Fund)
iShares Lehman Aggregate Bond (AGG)