TSP Talk Forums - Blogs http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/blog.php TSP Talk - Thrift Savings Plan en Mon, 06 Sep 2010 10:37:24 GMT vBulletin 60 http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/images/misc/rss.jpg TSP Talk Forums - Blogs http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/blog.php Sunday Brief http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/blog.php?b=680 Sun, 05 Sep 2010 14:51:47 GMT
Sunday Brief, 5 September 2010
Anything can happen



As is traditional, this year both the Transports & Small caps have been leading these markets, with usually the Transports leading by an extra day. So when I look for price direction, I look for these indexes to tell me what's going on. If we push higher, before we do we need to break some upper trendlines.

On the Bearish side, the Transports tested & were rejected by the white trendline from the May & July peaks. But on the Bullish side the Small Caps have broken and closed above this line, so now all we need is confirmation. If the S&P 500 breaks above this trendline, then I see no reason why we shouldn't test the previous 1130 top. If you're looking at the moving averages, keep in mind these are 2-day charts, so you should multiply by 2 to get the daily timeframe.

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Starting the the first 3 days of the month out, the Small caps are leading the way. If you look at Tom's Returns Analysis it confirms this chart, showing MTD the S-Fund is leading, followed by the C, I, & F funds.

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In last week's blog, I did mention the pre-holiday effect, but I didn't examine the potential upside, so on this 15-minute chart I've given you both the bearish & bullish view. These price projections are based on the last 3 days action, and these 3-day Fibonacci levels match well with my other Fibonacci charts, this shows us just how key these levels have been. You might also notice there's a 3 point gap I expect to see filled.

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To summarize, we should watch the Indexes trendlines for confirmation of an S&P 500 breakout up to 1130. However, If we do pullback from here then let's stay in the Fibonacci green zone. If we breakdown into the red zone, then the bears have taken control of prices again.

Take care & trade safe...Jason


 ]]> JTH http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/blog.php?b=680 TSP Talk Weekly Wrap Up - 9/04/10 http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/blog.php?b=679 Sat, 04 Sep 2010 15:53:52 GMT *Pre-holiday Rally, Post-holiday??* Although the economy is still not showing great signs of growth, we saw a couple of better than expected... Pre-holiday Rally, Post-holiday??

Although the economy is still not showing great signs of growth, we saw a couple of better than expected economic reports last week, including the jobs report, the ISM, and consumer confidence, and that was enough to propel the stock market higher last week.

It was a pre-holiday week, which is usually accompanied by light volume trading, allowing the indices to get pushed around quite easily, so we’ve been skeptical as to whether the gains can hold after the holiday. Moves against the general trend are common before a holiday, only to see things correct themselves the following week. We shall see.

For the week, the TSP funds did quite well. The C-fund was up 3.80%, the S-fund jumped 4.37%, and the I-fund led the way with a gain of 4.68%. Bonds (F-fund) slipped 0.03% and the G-fund picked up 0.05%.



The final numbers for the month of August were: The C-fund was down 4.51%, the S-fund lost 5.59%, and the I-fund fell 3.14%. Bonds and the F-fund were up 1.28% in August, and the G-fund gained 0.22%.

Because of the long holiday weekend, I’ll make this brief. Like many of you, I am out enjoying the last weekend of the summer.

Just be careful how you approach the market. The strength last week was impressive but don’t worry; you won’t miss the boat completely. If this rally turns out to be a trend changing event, we’ll have plenty of time to get aboard a new bull market. If things head south again, we’ll be glad we were patient.

Good luck, and thanks for reading. We will be back here next week with another TSP Wrap Up.

Tom Crowley
www.tsptalk.com

Weekly Wrap-Ups Archive ]]> tsptalk http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/blog.php?b=679 Relentless http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/blog.php?b=678 Fri, 03 Sep 2010 23:36:39 GMT The big money has certainly made their point. In thin trading they can do pretty much what they want to do, when they want to do it. September is off... The big money has certainly made their point. In thin trading they can do pretty much what they want to do, when they want to do it. September is off to a robust start and I won't deny the charts are looking bullish.

But the charts were looking quite bearish just 4 trading days ago and we were in a bear market. Now we're probably back in a bull market and the bearish charts were blasted apart.

It's not unusual to a see a huge rally in a bear market though, so there's still room for caution.

It wasn't all good news this morning in the payrolls data. Granted, it wasn't bad per se, but the jobs picture hasn't changed much either. But hey, we're on a roll so who cares about the news. :rolleyes:

Here's the charts:

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We've covered a lot of ground here in a very short period of time. And NYMO is now sitting just above its 28 day trading high.

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Still on buys here.

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TRIN and TRINQ are staying planted in very overbought territory. That can't last forever.

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BPCOMPQ moved higher and may be signaling more upside to this move.

So all Seven Sentinels are flashing buys and NYMO has now closed above its 28 day trading high. It's a buy signal so the sentinels are now on a buy.

What I continue to dislike is the explosiveness of not just the upside moves when they occur, but the downside moves as well. And remember, the downside usually moves faster than the upside, so after seeing this 3-day wonder rally I can't help but wonder (now that the powers that be have flipped most mechanical systems back to a buy) how much faster they'll take it down (not a question of if, but when).

But I'm not calling for a decline here. The system is flashing a buy, but we've seen this story play out numerous times now over the past 2 years or so.

I'm finding it amusing that some of the bulls (not so much on this MB) are saying everyone is shorting this rally, but I'm seeing no shortage of traders taking long positions here, so I suspect we see what we want to see. In any event, volume should increase next week as summer vacations expire. Should be interesting. ]]> coolhand http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/blog.php?b=678 Impressive, But Too Far, Too Fast http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/blog.php?b=677 Thu, 02 Sep 2010 23:07:33 GMT Stocks extended their gains for the second day in row, which really gets September off to a bang. But the non-farm payrolls looms on the horizon. How... Stocks extended their gains for the second day in row, which really gets September off to a bang. But the non-farm payrolls looms on the horizon. How will the market react to those numbers?

We remain very overbought, so some selling would seem to be in cards at this point, but I would not rule out another run to the upside tomorrow as we head into the Labor Day weekend. It's what happens next week that's of primary interest to me, but I am expecting to see stocks give some of their gains back tomorrow in any event.

The Seven Sentinels improved for the most part today, but there are signs we've come too far, too fast. Here's the charts:

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Momentum moved higher today and NAMO and NYMO are now solidly in positive territory.

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NAHL and NYHL remain on a buy, but NYHL suggests at least a pause in the short term as it declined today. Internals were not a strong as they were yesterday.

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TRIN and TRINQ remain on a buy, but still show a very overbought market.

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BPCOMPQ inched just a bit higher and remains on a buy.

All signals continue to flash buys, but a 28 day trading high has still not been triggered by NYMO, which now sits at 25.3. The 28 day trading high is a 76 today, so still no buy signal from the sentinels.

One of the concerns that I continue to have with this market is the fast, deep turns in both directions. Typically when the SS gets a signal, too much of the upside or downside has already passed by. Even with a 28 day signal this market cannot be taken for granted.

Still 100% G and just fine with that. ]]> coolhand http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/blog.php?b=677 Not for the Faint of Heart http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/blog.php?b=676 Thu, 02 Sep 2010 00:04:26 GMT I'm not surprised by the rally, but once again the market overdoes it in a big way. This time to the upside. And now we're very overbought in the short term.

So what was the excuse for the rally this time?
Well, the August ISM Manufacturing Index posted a 56.3, which was well above the expected 52.9. And apparently the market ignored the August ADP Employment Change report, which showed that private payrolls fell by 10,000 last month, instead of an an expected increase of 13,000.

We still have the non-farms payroll data coming at the end of the week, and that's always good for some volatile action.

Still, more than 98% of the companies in the S&P 500 staged gains. But it should be noted that the S&P has still not closed above its 50-day moving average.

Seasonality favors stocks at the moment, so we could see more gains in the days ahead. But I suspect the bulk of the gains just passed by.

The Seven Sentinels managed to all flip to buys, but NYMO did not hit its 28 day trading high. In fact, it's quite a ways away from it. July 26 was 28 trading days ago and that's when NYMO hit the mid-90s at its peak. Today's action left NYMO sitting at 6.81. Here's the charts:

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Yes, we've improved and both signals are now flashing buys.

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NAHL and NYHL also improved in dramatic fashion.

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TRIN and TRINQ, while on buys, are showing extremely overbought conditions in the short term. I will be very surprised is we don't retrace at least half these gains by the end of the week.

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BPCOMPQ managed to move a bit higher today and did cross the lower bollinger band, which triggers a buy signal.

So as I mentioned above, all signals are flashing buys, but the system remains on a sell as NYMO has not hit a new 28 day trading high. Remember that this particular caveat is designed to avoid whipsaws in highly volatile action. I remain 100% G. ]]> coolhand http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/blog.php?b=676 We Bounced http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/blog.php?b=675 Tue, 31 Aug 2010 22:43:51 GMT Yesterday I said that the Seven Sentinels were suggesting yet another bounce after Monday's sell-off and low and behold we got a bit of a rally. Of course it was an intra-day rally, but it was a rally none-the-less.

So is that it? Probably not. I suspect another pop higher is still in the cards, but the unemployment report is looming later this week, so it's a difficult call to predict what may happen.

Here's today's charts:

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We're sitting just above the 6 day EMA on both signals here and they are technically on buys. But they don't look particularly bullish.

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NAHL and NYHL both fell back below their 6 day EMAs are now flashing sells.

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Mixed bag with TRIN and TRINQ. One buy and one sell.

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BPCOMPQ continues to drop lower. This particular signals continues to point lower and remains a bearish sign.

So we have 4 of 7 signals flashing sells, which keeps the system on a sell. Although I am expecting another run higher this week, it may not last the day, or we may not get much of a move higher at all with those unemployment numbers looming. We are also moving towards a long weekend, which may spook buyers more than they already are. The Sentinels look neutral overall, but that's only for the very short term. Longer term we are still pointed down.

Things could get very interesting by the end of the week. ]]> coolhand http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/blog.php?b=675 <![CDATA[That Didn't Take Long]]> http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/blog.php?b=674 Mon, 30 Aug 2010 23:09:35 GMT I had anticipated a gap up this morning that would eventually give way to selling pressure as the day wore on. Well, we didn't get a gap up after Friday's bull rout, but we certainly saw some selling pressure as the day wore on. That should tell you something. Namely, that this is now a bear market and gains evaporate quickly and also that this market is getting weaker.

Here's the charts:

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Back to the trigger point on NAMO and NYMO. NYMO just did trigger a sell, while NAMO is a borderline buy.

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NAHL and NYHL ebbed a bit higher today. I suspect this is a precursor to another run towards Friday's highs.

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TRIN and TRINQ both flipped to sells. TRIN in particular suggests another bounce too.

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BPCOMPQ edged sideways again. It really isn't looking bullish from my perspective.

So we have 4 of 7 signals on a sell, which keeps the system on a sell. I am looking for another run higher, but I am not expecting the market to hold higher prices for very long. In fact, I'm looking for new lows in the not-to-distant future. I am currently 100% G. ]]> coolhand http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/blog.php?b=674 Sunday Brief http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/blog.php?b=673 Mon, 30 Aug 2010 04:59:56 GMT Sunday Brief, 29 August 2010 Can it get worse? After 3 weeks of bearish action, this market appears inclined to test SPX 1010, and many...
Sunday Brief, 29 August 2010
Can it get worse?




After 3 weeks of bearish action, this market appears inclined to test SPX 1010, and many believe Friday's bounce is just a short-term play at best. As for me, my last entry is at 1079, and if I could break even, I'll take an exit.


First up is the hourly July chart I've changed to a 2-hour chart, to consolidate space. If the bounce continues, I can see a test of 1070, which is a 50% retracement of the July Fibonacci levels, and a 50% retracement from the recent 17-25 August swing high/low. I do at a minimum expect to fill the gap at 1067.08.
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The daily May channel is now a 2-day chart, once again I wanted to consolidate space. On this timeframe we are on target within the regression channel, sitting at 1062. Based on Mr. Fibonacci, if we were to break under 1011, I'd gander a -23.6% projection at 963. I've added volume so we can see the dramatic slide down since the May peak.
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The weekly chart remains bullish, but it does seem to suggest a pending test of 1008. Anything below this level, and this chart turns neutral.
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Here is a weekly price performance chart going back to March 2009. Like most of our top performing Autotrackers have figured out, the S-Fund (represented by the Russell 2000) is clearly outperforming all others. But don't let this chosen time frame fool you too much, here are the current winners from some other timeframes.

5 Year - AGG
1 Year - AGG
YTD - AGG
6 Month - AGG
3 Month - EFA/UDN
1 Month - AGG
1 Week - Russell 2000
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Here is another 2-day chart, if you look at the moving average, just mulitiply by 2 and you'll get the daily timeframe. I've drawn in the key trendlines to watch for. As you can see, we closed above those trends for the week, and this is great news for the bull camp. The 2-day 250SMA (daily 500SMA) is sitting at 1001, and I'm calling this a line in the sand.
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Projecting out for the week, I think we may continue the bounce but most likely close flat to positive. Do keep in mind with Labor Day approaching we may get the Pre-Holiday effect. I won't go into that as Tom already does a great job with it.

Take care and stop safe...Jason
]]> JTH http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/blog.php?b=673 Weekly Update http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/blog.php?b=672 Mon, 30 Aug 2010 00:37:14 GMT Cash levels rose again last week. Are we too bearish? Attachment 1777 (http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/attachment.php?attachmentid=1777) Attachment... Cash levels rose again last week. Are we too bearish?

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Top 50 is showing only about 22% allocation to stocks, with cash levels dipping modestly.

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The Total Tracker saw cash levels rise, in this case for the third consecutive week.

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The Top 15 appear to be the most bullish of the three charts as stock allocations are over 60%.

Futures are moderately higher this evening, but it's too early to really know how we open. I still think we gap up at the start and at some point begin to see selling pressure take over. If this is a bear market, Friday's gains won't sit on the table long. ]]> coolhand http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/blog.php?b=672 TSP Talk Weekly Wrap Up - 08/28/10 http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/blog.php?b=671 Sat, 28 Aug 2010 18:02:53 GMT *Expect bearish results in a bear market* Stocks went on a wild ride last week as new economic data tossed the indices around during the mostly... Expect bearish results in a bear market

Stocks went on a wild ride last week as new economic data tossed the indices around during the mostly light volume, late summer trading.

We saw initial jobless claims come in slightly better than expected. There was a downward revision to the 2nd quarter GDP, but the revision was slightly higher than expected. Consumer sentiment came in lower than expected, and we saw some disappointing numbers from the housing industry – hence the volatility.

On Friday, stocks rallied sharply as once again the Federal Reserve stepped in to assure us that they will do what it takes to help. The last time the Fed did that stocks rallied, but it was short-lived.

It was another mixed week for the TSP as the C-fund lost 0.62%, the S-fund gained 0.17%, and the I-fund fell 0.17%. Bonds (F-fund) slipped 0.11% and the G-fund picked up 0.05%.



For the month, the C-fund is down 3.15%, the S-fund is off 3.83%, and the I-fund has dropped 3.00%. Bonds and the F-fund are up 0.72% in August, and the G-fund is up 0.19%.

The S&P 500 experienced some serious technical damage over the last few weeks, and now finds itself in a short, and longer-term, downtrend. But like most indices, it had become quite oversold and was due for a bounce. Markets don’t go straight up or straight down and after exhaling for some time, Friday’s rally was a reflexive inhale and the Fed’s reassuring statements helped produce what was probably going to happen anyway.

The problem is it has its work cut out for it to keep the rally going. There is resistance just overhead, and also the Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) could also give the index problems should the rally move through the first wave of resistance.


Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk

As you can see above, the S&P 500 is trading below the 20, 50, and 200-day EMA’s, the 50-day EMA is below the 200-day EMA, and the 20-day EMA is below both the 50 and 200-day EMA. This is a pretty good indication that we are in a bear market, and when the market is in a bear market, expect negative outcomes. When rallies happen, it is an opportunity to sell if you own stocks. You buy dips in a bull market, and sell rallies in a bear market.

The chart of the S&P 500 is not painting a very bullish picture at the moment, and this small chart above is just showing a small portion of the story. Please check in daily with our daily market commentary where we will look more closely at the day to day developments of the charts and indicators.

Good luck, and thanks for reading. We will be back here next week with another TSP Wrap Up.

Tom Crowley
www.tsptalk.com

Weekly Wrap-Ups Archive ]]> tsptalk http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/blog.php?b=671 Not Impressed http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/blog.php?b=670 Sat, 28 Aug 2010 00:20:34 GMT Looks good from a distance, but lift the hood and we got problems. At least that's how it looks right now.

So we saw a 1.7% rally today, which appeared to be triggered after Fed Chairman Bernanke indicated that he expects better growth in 2011, and further stated the Fed is ready to use "unconventional measures if it proves necessary, especially if the outlook were to deteriorate significantly."

Then treasuries got hammered as the stock market took off.

I said in yesterday's blog that the Seven Sentinels suggested a short term bottom may have been put in, and so far that seems to be the case. But comments delivered by the Fed Chair often trigger very short-lived movement in the indexes. I would not be comfortable just yet with the long side. Especially as today was Friday and market participants have the weekend to ponder the situation a little more.

Let's take a look at the charts:

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NAMO and NYMO both triggered buy signals today, but remain below the zero line.

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One would think internals would have improved after today, but NAHL and NYHL don't suggest that at all. Very little movement here, but they do remain on a buy.

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TRIN and TRINQ are both flashing buys, but indicate a very overbought market in the short term.

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BPCOMPQ didn't hardly budge and remains on a sell.

So we have 6 of 7 signals flashing buys, but the system remains on a sell.

The charts do not instill any confidence in me that a new up-leg has begun. Certainly not one with any substance. Look for a pop Monday morning followed by selling pressure as the day wears on. That's my prediction for Monday.

See you this weekend when I post the Tracker charts. ]]> coolhand http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/blog.php?b=670 Looking Like a Bear Market to Me http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/blog.php?b=669 Thu, 26 Aug 2010 23:30:30 GMT I'm going to keep it short tonight. The charts haven't really changed a whole lot, but they still seem to suggest a short term bottom may be near.

But any attempt at a rally is stomped fairly quickly and that's why this is beginning to look like a bear market.

Here's the charts:

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Still pointing down here.

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Internal strength? Both NAHL and NYHL actually flipped to buys today. This is one of the reasons I'm thinking the oversold rally is still alive. Or maybe that's what we're supposed to think.

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TRIN and TRINQ are on a sell. But TRINQ is oversold and suggests bounce coming.

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BPCOMPQ looks to be trying to curl back up after today. This is another subtle sign that perhaps a more meaningful rally is yet to materialize.

So we have 5 of 7 signals on a sell, which keeps the system on a sell. Aside from the obvious bear market trading character of this market, the charts suggest at least a short term rally may still happen. The big question now though is can we string together some follow-through action to the upside?

Still 100% G here and just fine with that. ]]> coolhand http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/blog.php?b=669 Fighting Headwinds http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/blog.php?b=668 Thu, 26 Aug 2010 00:45:29 GMT We got a rally, but the market really does appear to be fighting headwinds when it finally moves to the upside. After four negative sessions in a... We got a rally, but the market really does appear to be fighting headwinds when it finally moves to the upside.

After four negative sessions in a row it appeared that a fifth was in the making, but the market did manage to generate a short covering rally by the afternoon. And it was overseas markets that kept the negativity going early on. There was news that Ireland’s sovereign debt rating was reduced by Standard and Poor's to AA- from AA, which certainly wasn't what the market wanted to hear, although it was probably no surprise. The Shanghai Composite dropped 2.0% and Japan’s Nikkei fell even further into bear market territory. Japan's Ministry of Finance has also been talking about unilateral yen-selling intervention to reduce the strength of the Yen. A lot of moving parts in play and none of them good.

In our own market, the latest durable goods report added to the selling pressure here as orders for July increased just 0.3%, which is a far cry from the 3.0% increase that had been expected. Strip out transportation and durable goods orders dropped 3.8%. Again a far cry from what was expected, which was a 0.5% increase.

I am currently anticipated some follow-through to the upside tomorrow, although I don't know if it will hold till the close, assuming of course that we do rally.

Here's the charts:

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Still on sells here, although it's possible they could flip to buys depending on tomorrow's action.

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Same with NAHL and NYHL.

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TRIN and TRINQ are both flashing buys,

Name: BPCOMPQ.jpg Views: 378 Size: 62.8 KB ]]> coolhand http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/blog.php?b=668 Kitty has claws http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/blog.php?b=667 Wed, 25 Aug 2010 03:14:56 GMT Kitty has claws Know your stops 22 August, in my last blog (http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/blog.php?b=662) I explained why I felt 1056 (now...
Kitty has claws
Know your stops


22 August, in my last blog I explained why I felt 1056 (now broken) was both a key short & long term level of significant importance between the bulls and the bears.

22 August, in our Head & Shoulders thread I posted a short-intermediate term chart with an estimated 1010 target, the same one (of many) Toms been keeping us posted on.

15 & 22 August, I posted bearish charts in the Weekly Talk thread.

15 August, in our Golden Cross thread I gave a Bear Market warning, showing 3/4 of my top four had a bearish Death Cross.

12 August, I posted an update to James P&F Chart School thread showing a bearish price objective of 1230.

31 July, I Posted a bear market warning in our Monthly Talk concerning Bulkowski's 12SMA study. I hold him in high regard, he is the "rain man" of technical analyst.

2 July, I posted a long-term bear market warning in my 500SMA thread. At that moment in time we had already broken below this level twice, and right now this key moving average is sitting at 1010 which is a key level.

2 January, In my blog 2010 Market Expectations I wrote "I have to admit I'm not overly optimistic about 2010's market. Based on previous Bear markets my expectations are the S&P 500 will trade between Fibonacci's 1020-1230." Thus far this year I've been off by 10 points on both sides and I still stand by that assessment. But if we break below 1000, I will be quick to change my outlook and leave stocks altogether if needed.



In summary, if you don't think this kitty has claws, well I just showed you 8 of them. If you count that Hindenburg Omen that's 9, does this market have 9 lives?

Take care and stop safe...Jason
 ]]> JTH http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/blog.php?b=667 Bounce Soon? http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/blog.php?b=666 Tue, 24 Aug 2010 23:02:58 GMT That's four down trading days in a row. Normally, I'd expect at least a relief bounce at this point, but I'm not so sure it'll be that simple. Seems a lot of folks are playing contrarian against the Hindenburg Omen, but it doesn't matter how much we tip the boat to one side or the other or for what reason, an overcrowded trade is an overcrowded trade.

I don't really know if that's the case here, but I'm certainly not comfortable when "everyone" knows a ringer when they see it. Especially when I've a sell signal.

And the news just isn't getting any better. July existing home sales dropped a severe 27% month-over-month to an annualized rate of 3.8 million units. That's the worst showing since records began in 1999.

Here's the charts:

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Lower still. Two sells.

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Yesterday, NAHL and NYHL looked as if they might be poised to signal a bounce for today, but the losses today certainly drove home the point of how weak this market actually is. Two more sells.

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TRIN and TRINQ are showing oversold conditions and are both on a sell.

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After hugging that lower bollinger band the past few days, BPCOMPQ put a little air between it and that lower line...to the downside and still on a sell.

So all signals are flashing sells and while I am well aware we are due for a relief rally, there's nothing that says it will happen on any given day. I have no reason to be optimistic looking at these charts and I anticipate more weakness in spite of any rally that may materialize.

Still holding 100% G. ]]> coolhand http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/blog.php?b=666