Blog Comments

  1. Jatelle's Avatar
    Coolhand, we are going to miss your posts. I have really enjoyed your insightful analysis of the indexes. It has been truly helpful in my trading. Thank you so much! I wish you good luck in your future ventures. Don't be a stranger - I hope to see you posting again on TSPTalk sooner than later! Best!
  2. joblin20's Avatar
    I am curious if Friday was the final push.
  3. joblin20's Avatar
    Awesome commentary! Very helpful.
  4. jstrime's Avatar
    Thanks. I only want to add the DWCPF rose 4.5% in the previous three trading sessions. Nothing to despair about, but agree short term could be volatile.
  5. Greensboro's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by joblin20
    Could be signs of bubble popping. Next week may provide clarity.
    With all the extra cash being injected into the economy and more coming, it makes me wonder how the traditional comfortable range for the P/E might now not completely apply - anyone given any thought or seen analysis on this proposition? We keep talking about a "bubble", but not all variables are fixed - many are moving significantly. Just thinking out loud here.
  6. joblin20's Avatar
    Could be signs of bubble popping. Next week may provide clarity.
  7. jstrime's Avatar
    First, thank you for all you offer to TSP investors. My official 2020 return was 26%, certainly very good considering where my TSP was on 3/23. I went to G fund on Dec. 22 from 80/20 S/C funds. But yesterday morning I gave in and converted back to 60/40 S/C for today, probably should have stayed with 80/20, but have another ift (plus G fund) for the month. I believe with a new administration across the board, the powers that be don't want a major correction on their hands... Stocks are going higher.
  8. coolhand's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by joblin20
    With the feds having the stock market back, is it even possible for the market to crash?
    That's been one of the secrets to my bullishness. Who has control? I've said in the past that "someone" wants this market higher and they've been pushing it in that direction for quite some time now. Without getting into specifics, it's possible the market doesn't crash, but not a guarantee. That's also one of the reasons I watch NAAIM. They have not been beared up when so many others were screaming about this overbought market. If they do get beared up, that's reason to get defensive.

    The only reason I went neutral earlier this week was to see how the transition went from one year to the next; especially given the end-of-year weakness. I did not get bearish, I only decided to take a wait and see approach for a short while.

    Having said that, the latest NAAIM reading (today) shows the smart money increasing their bullishness. So I am moving from neutral back to bullish.
  9. joblin20's Avatar
    With the feds having the stock market back, is it even possible for the market to crash?
  10. FireWeatherMet's Avatar
    Interesting to survey the percentage of those in the Tracker who are invested in stocks right now.
  11. Jatelle's Avatar
    Thanks Coolhand. This is what I thought - very helpful. It will be good to see the next NAAIM report on Thursday. There is so much fear-mongering out there it's easy to get spooked. I figure the market has already baked in the expected losses due to the coronavirus. Keep up your good work - it's really appreciated!
  12. coolhand's Avatar
    Hello Jatelle,

    I am not expecting a dead cat bounce. There is a battle over control of this market and the bulls are winning. I point to the smart money (NAAIM) as reasonable evidence that price will be going higher. NAAIM is now leaning bullish. By following smart money I believe investors increase their chances of being on the right side of the market.
  13. Jatelle's Avatar
    Good information - thanks! There are strong market indicators that this rally has got legs (50 day moving average holding, falling VIX index, and a big drop in the Put/Call ratio today). But it has some storm winds ahead. Do you think with the jobs report coming out on Friday - expecting a loss of 21 million jobs - that the bulls can push through it? It is tempting to jump back in but if this is just a dead cat bounce week ahead then I will just wait it out...thoughts?
  14. coolhand's Avatar
    Well, futures are down pretty good so far Sunday evening. We need a catalyst that can be used as an excuse to take the market down. I though the FOMC meeting next week might be it, but the Doha production freeze failed to produce an agreement and that could be the excuse to send the market lower. Maybe the FOMC puts in a floor after some selling?

    Market direction sure does seem to revolve around a script. It reminds me of the WWF days in the 80-90's. It's all theater.
  15. DreamboatAnnie's Avatar
    Hi Coolhand, Thank You for posting this highly valuable information. I also believe a large drop is becoming more likely and would not rule out something worse than 2008. I didnt know which charts track financial sectors in the international markets so your post advanced my learning. Thanks again!!
  16. coolhand's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by JTH
    Great writing!
    Hi Jason.

    Thanks! I wrote it while on a weekend getaway to St. Augustine, FL. Ever been there? It's the oldest city in the country (founded in 1565).

    Did the tourist thing and went to the oldest wax museum in the country and then the Pirate and Treasure Museum. I liked the Pirate Museum best. Our tour guide (Captain Mayhem) was exceptionally knowledgeable and dressed and talked in character. Loved it!

    I think I got the idea for my blog from that museum, actually. All that talk about pillaging and plunder made me think about central banks.
  17. JTH's Avatar
    Great writing!
  18. Cactus's Avatar
    Sounds good, coolhand. Welcome back. I remember looking forward to your posts back in the old day before you went the premium route. It will be good hearing from you again.
  19. coolhand's Avatar
    Hello Cactus. I am going to be blogging maybe once each week. It is separate from my premium stuff.

    Quote Originally Posted by Cactus
    Oh Oh! Shouldn't this blog post only be visible to Premium Service members? It showed up when I wasn't even logged in.
  20. Cactus's Avatar
    Oh Oh! Shouldn't this blog post only be visible to Premium Service members? It showed up when I wasn't even logged in.
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