Blog Comments

  1. bmneveu's Avatar
    this would end up matching the 1929-30 chart that Tom pointed out
  2. FireWeatherMet's Avatar
    Nice analysis..think it proves that market cycles continue to dominate...that the shutdowns act mainly to accelerate or decelerate that trend.

    The Debt Ceiling fight has been, and will be something bigger that could disrupt any short term market cycle sharply t the downside, since US securities are held all around the world as a "safest of all investments". Taking thata safety factor away and defaulting can easily do in early-mid Oct what it did 2 summers ago...10-20% drop.
  3. PICK68's Avatar
    TSP HAS 2-3% NEED TO GO DOWN.
  4. PICK68's Avatar
    It's possible for rebound one or two days. I think market has still owed one big down day.
  5. mick504's Avatar
    I thought the market was basically staying afloat and rising due to the fed pumping it up; without that...I would think there would be a decline! Presently in cash.
  6. JimmyJoe's Avatar
    The most beloved rally ever, for my money. Analysts hate it, they got in late or still not at all. Govt is trying to suck it dry, or slow it down. Still it rolls.
  7. Uptrend's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by bmneveu
    Interesting! Are you looking for an overbought RSI level on the USD to consider a move into the I fund? Thanks for the analysis.
    On the daily chart the USD, as tracked by the NYSE Power Shares DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund, is nearing overbought on the RSI but more importantly substantial chart resistance. Meanwhile on the daily EFA chart we have a rising MACD histogram, but still below the zero line, a ROC above zero and rising and an ADX cross. So, IMO the trade is warming up. The Italian elections may be a wild card however, with the talk of leaving the Euro.
  8. bmneveu's Avatar
    Interesting! Are you looking for an overbought RSI level on the USD to consider a move into the I fund? Thanks for the analysis.
  9. Frixxxx's Avatar
    In the infamous words on the game show "Card Sharks", All of it, HIGHER! Thanks Uptrend!
  10. Bquat's Avatar
    Thanks, that's what kinda got my attension lately. Useful information right when I was thinking about the VIX bouncing.
  11. James48843's Avatar
    Great observation. Thanks for the words. Helps me learn more.
  12. IndianaJones's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by gronk007
    exactly...my only IFT move left is the 100%G...do I move now and take the 3% or so for the month or do I let it ride?
    move back to the G in stages to hang onto some of those gains....say 50% now then maybe another 20% in a day or two if things still rise....that way you have cashed in some of your gains while leaving some stock exposure...we got unlimited moves back into the G fund...
  13. gronk007's Avatar
    exactly...my only IFT move left is the 100%G...do I move now and take the 3% or so for the month or do I let it ride?
  14. Scout333's Avatar
    Easy call if we had two or more IFTs. Not so much with only one IFT left this month which is where I am. I suspect we'll get hammered next week but will we bounce back end of the month? Decisions, decisions.
  15. CrabClaw's Avatar
    looks like the right side of a nice H&S being put in on the VIX... kind of goes along with what you are presenting here. Target would be around 10, VIX has not been there in many , many years. Good stuff, thanks for sharing.
  16. nsurf9's Avatar
    Uptrend, I just quickly read your post. Real good stuff!! I got to read it again and digest the possiblities.

    I've been watching the I fund (EAFE) since January to close in on the S and C funds, the Euro empty rhetoric just keeps going down the drain with the rest of Europe. It (I fund) has made a little pop (~7-8% at one point, if my memory seves me).

    If the ECB really does come thru and the US Fed does a QE3 my thoughts too are that the I fund will likly really be off to the races. And, yes it can move fast!
    Updated 07-14-2012 at 08:48 PM by nsurf9 (edit add)
  17. Uptrend's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by mayday
    Looks like there is a gap to be filled in the 1330 range from June 29th.
    Your right; there is a 0.23 point gap on the hourly chart between the 6/28 close and the 6/29 open. However, the daily chart shows no gap, but a red hammer candle as price fell and then substantially recovered intra-day.
  18. mayday's Avatar
    Looks like there is a gap to be filled in the 1330 range from June 29th.
  19. Uptrend's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by gronk007
    looking at the futures projecting right at 1300 levels are you looking at an IFT possibly totally or waiting for the 1300 level to be broken?
    The surge todeay is more than expected. The swing point is now at 1311 which is in the 1313 pivot area.
  20. gronk007's Avatar
    looking at the futures projecting right at 1300 levels are you looking at an IFT possibly totally or waiting for the 1300 level to be broken?
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