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Notices

RULES FOR FOLLOWING THE SEVEN SENTINELS

The concurrent alignment of all seven signals under specific conditions constitutes a signal and defines the context or prevailing trend of the market. Here are the individual buy/sell triggers:

TRINQ and TRIN: Daily reading below the 13 Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is buy mode, a reading above the 13 Day EMA is sell mode.

For NAMO, NYMO, NAHL, NYHL, a daily reading above the 6 Day EMA is buy mode, and reading below the 6 Day EMA is sell mode.

For BPCOMPQ, A positive crossing though the lower or upper bollinger band constitutes buy mode. A negative crossing through the lower or upper Bolinger Band constitutes sell mode. It stays in buy mode or in sell mode until it re-crosses in the opposite direction.

All seven must be in a sell or buy condition simultaneously to complete the signal.

In this highly volatile market one other condition must be met in order to reduce the chance of whipsaws. A buy or sell signal needs to be confirmed by a NYMO 28 trading day high or low depending on the nature of the signal. If this occurs then the signal is considered valid.
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Old

Bias remains Up

Posted Yesterday at 10:29 PM by coolhand (Seven Sentinels for TSP)

The initial jobless claims data for the previous week totaled 451,000, which was less than the 470,000 claims that had been expected.

Continuing claims were pegged at 4.48 million, a little above the anticipated 4.45 million.

And of course the market took its cues from those numbers and drove the indexes higher. But interestingly, those numbers have been revised lower quite often after the initial reports are given, but the market doesn't seem to care about that....
Attached Images
File Type: jpg NAMO.jpg (88.6 KB, 311 views)
File Type: jpg NAHL.jpg (90.2 KB, 312 views)
File Type: jpg TRIN.jpg (94.8 KB, 308 views)
File Type: jpg BPCOMPQ.jpg (62.6 KB, 308 views)
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Old

Flirting with 1100 on the S&P

Posted Yesterday at 12:49 AM by coolhand (Seven Sentinels for TSP)

After another bout of Euro debt fear hit the markets yesterday, today saw a Portuguese debt auction draw strong demand. That seemed to be the catalyst to send overseas markets higher.

Here at home the Fed's Beige Book didn't get much reaction, and at the close of trading consumer credit data showed another drop in July of $3.6 billion. So consumer credit has tightened now for 17 of the last 18 months.

Volume remains unimpressive. Today was the fourth trading day in...
Attached Images
File Type: jpg $NAMO.jpg (88.8 KB, 396 views)
File Type: jpg $NAHL.jpg (90.9 KB, 390 views)
File Type: jpg $TRIN.jpg (95.2 KB, 391 views)
File Type: jpg $BPCOMPQ.jpg (62.1 KB, 391 views)
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Old

Consolidation or Something Else?

Posted 09-07-2010 at 11:02 PM by coolhand (Seven Sentinels for TSP)

It was due after last week's run-up, but was today's action confirmation that last week's rally was nothing more than a counter-trend rally? It's too early to say, but volume was light today and being this was post holiday action it certainly leaves room for bullish arguments.

Here's the charts:

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No real technical damage here and both signals remain on buys.

Name:  NAHL.jpg
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NAHL remains on a buy,...
Attached Images
File Type: jpg TRIN.jpg (95.5 KB, 403 views)
File Type: jpg BPCOMPQ.jpg (63.1 KB, 403 views)
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Old

Correction

Posted 09-07-2010 at 08:44 AM by coolhand (Seven Sentinels for TSP)

I had to amend Friday's blog in which I stated the Seven Sentinels went to a buy. In reviewing the 28 day trading high I managed to misread the chart. NYMO needs to reach 66.4 to flip the system back to a buy. It could still happen if buying pressure continues this week, but for now I have to retract my original call and point out that the SS are still on a sell. Here's the chart:

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On August 2nd and 4th NYMO was sitting higher than where it sits...
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Old

Weekly Update

Posted 09-06-2010 at 10:57 PM by coolhand (Seven Sentinels for TSP)
Updated 09-07-2010 at 10:23 AM by coolhand (Retracted SS buy signal statement)

After a big three day bounce off S&P 1040 (third time too) the S&P is now sitting at 1104.51. The indicators are very overbought. It's now post labor day trading. What can we expect?

Here's how our fellow TSPers are positioned to start the week.

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Name:  2010 Cash-Stock Exp ~ Top 50 Chart 1.jpg
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There's one thing that really jumps out at me in the Top 50 charts. The F fund is up big. Real big. And not a lot of stock exposure after that big rally either....
Attached Images
File Type: jpg Complete Tracker Fund Allocation.jpg (38.9 KB, 222 views)
File Type: jpg Total Tracker.jpg (47.7 KB, 222 views)
File Type: jpg Total Cash-Stock Exp ~ Top 15 Chart 1.jpg (54.2 KB, 224 views)
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