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Will the bears finally get their pullback?

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Stocks fell on Wednesday and have been under pressure since hitting new highs recently. The Dow lost 106-points on the day and percentage-wise, the losses were similar in the other major indices.

I really appreciate your patience while I have been out of commission this week. I will be back in the office full-time by Thursday morning (writing this Wednesday night), but I have to make this kind of quick today - last day, I promise!

Daily TSP Funds Return

The F-fund was up slightly but nothing that would have us believe investors are running for safety yet.

The SPY (S&P 500 / C-fund) was down sharply in early trading on Wednesday, but it did bounce back and close well off the lows. The 20-day EMA is holding so far, and the old resistance line is also trying to hold as support. I expect the bears to try to keep the pressure on, but we'll have to see if the dip buyers are still interested. If they aren't, the 50-day EMA could be next.


Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk


The Wilshire 4500 (S-fund) broke below the old resistance line and it is now trying to hold as support. Despite the recent selling, the indices are still very close to all-time highs.


Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com
, analysis by TSP Talk

The
EFA (EAFE Index / I-fund) posted a large positive reversal day but it did close down 0.4%. The rising channel was broken intraday, but the close saw it climb back into the channel after it tested the prior high's resistance line. There is still a small portion of a gap open near 63.50 and that would pull it down toward the 50 and 200-day EMA's if the downside wants to continue.


Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk


The strength in the dollar has put some pressure on the I-fund and commodities recently...


Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk


That's also put pressure on gold and ...



Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk


... Bonds so there doesn't seem to be any evidence that this recent decline in stocks is too much to be concerned about yet. Investors are not running for safety.



Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk



The February Jobs Report comes out on Friday and estimates are looking for a gain of 230,000 jobs and an unemployment rate of 5.6%. The jobs report contest is active in the forum.
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the Sentiment Survey Results and the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php

Thanks for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.

Tom Crowley


Posted daily at TSP Talk Market Commentary

The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.

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S&P500 (C Fund) (delayed)

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DWCPF (S Fund) (delayed)

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EFA (I Fund) (delayed)

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BND (F Fund) (delayed)

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